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This is one of my biggest concerns for our future. What happens when the costs of drones or 3D printing become so cheap, and the learning curve shrinks to the e

This is one of my biggest concerns for our future. What happens when the costs of drones or 3D printing become so cheap, and the learning curve shrinks to the extent that a terrorist, crazy person or school shooter can semi easily deploy their own deadly drone swarms.

eru 2y ago
Cars are really deadly and readily available without raising any suspicion. (And only fairly recently have we really seen anyone use cars for terror attacks. And they are still fairly rare, considering how ubiquitous cars are.) See also https://gwern.net/terrorism-is-not-about-terror https://gwern.net/terrorism-is-not-about-terror and https://gwern.net/terrorism-is-not-effective https://gwern.net/terrorism-is-not-effective
- s1artibartfast 2y ago
  Cars are traceable. Poison would be the alternative for those that dont want to be apprehended. I think many people misunderstand the degree to which society is contingent on the good faith participation of most people. It is like a prisoners dilemma where we have managed to convince 99.9% of people to cooperate and the whole thing can easily fall apart if they dont.
  - potato3732842 2y ago
    >It is like a prisoners dilemma where we have managed to convince 99.9% of people to cooperate and the whole thing can easily fall apart if they dont. That should give people who want to impose their will on others more pause than it does.
    - s1artibartfast 2y ago
      Indeed. As Such, I think liberal democracies need to be based on voluntary positive sum cooperation to be stable.
  - schuyler2d 2y ago
    I think we need to adjust society so fewer people feel they have nothing to lose than in the status quo.
  - eru 2y ago
    > Cars are traceable. Poison would be the alternative for those that dont want to be apprehended. Sure, but if you are willing to give your life 'to the cause', cars work.
  - whycome 2y ago
    Drone licence. Drone pilots licence.
    - coldtea 2y ago
      How does that solve anything at all?
    - s1artibartfast 2y ago
      already exist. Drones are required to have transponders registered to their owner. Doesnt do anything and is trivial to disable or circumnavigate.
- cafard 2y ago
  Car bombs, and moving car bombs have been around since the 1960s and before.
  - eru 2y ago
    I'm talking about just using an unmodified car to run over people. No need to learn anything about bomb making.
    - whycome 2y ago
      The curious thing about the two recent attack events in New Orleans is that most reported the trump tower one as an “exploding cybertruck” but very few even mentioned that the other incident involved an electric ford truck. It should have been absolutely newsworthy and raise questions: evs are actually more dangerous to a crowd. They don’t require space to accelerate. And they don’t make a lot of noise (and one could probably even disable the artificial movement sound). This is kind of a new danger.
      - eru 2y ago
        Yes, it would be, if homicidal people were actually held back by the limitations of ICE cars. But they aren't even really brushing against them. They seem to be mostly limited by their own incompetence. Fortunately.
dylan604 2y ago
well, we did just see a 3D printed weapon used, but the stories about the perp's looks shouted over the other details. I'm sure the gun lobby was pleased with that. so to the idea of school shootings, drone swarms would probably be too much for that, but a kid printing up their own guns to use is definitely something I could see happening. drone swarms would to me still be limited to a more well funded group to achieve instead of a lone wolf scenario.
aaomidi 2y ago
Then they’ll match the deadly output of states that have killed tens of thousands of people I guess.
ricardobeat 2y ago
I believe we’ve passed this point many years ago. These are already extremely cheap and accessible to anyone, you can buy 20-30 small drones for less than the price of one firearm. In reality there are hundreds of other ways someone could devise attacks like these, technology doesn’t really matter that much.
tuumi 2y ago
That time is here. I'm not all that smart and have made several quadcopters from parts. These do not have the geo restrictions that the commercial ones like DJI come with. There are thousands of people across the country doing the same with FPV drones. I live very close to a base that it's not uncommon to see Air Force One lands. I've often wondered if they have some sort of jamming software. It would be very easy to cause problems in a crowd and it's just a matter of time.

eru 2y ago

Cars are really deadly and readily available without raising any suspicion. (And only fairly recently have we really seen anyone use cars for terror attacks. And they are still fairly rare, considering how ubiquitous cars are.) See also https://gwern.net/terrorism-is-not-about-terror https://gwern.net/terrorism-is-not-about-terror and https://gwern.net/terrorism-is-not-effective https://gwern.net/terrorism-is-not-effective

s1artibartfast 2y ago
Cars are traceable. Poison would be the alternative for those that dont want to be apprehended. I think many people misunderstand the degree to which society is contingent on the good faith participation of most people. It is like a prisoners dilemma where we have managed to convince 99.9% of people to cooperate and the whole thing can easily fall apart if they dont.
- potato3732842 2y ago
  >It is like a prisoners dilemma where we have managed to convince 99.9% of people to cooperate and the whole thing can easily fall apart if they dont. That should give people who want to impose their will on others more pause than it does.
  - s1artibartfast 2y ago
    Indeed. As Such, I think liberal democracies need to be based on voluntary positive sum cooperation to be stable.
- schuyler2d 2y ago
  I think we need to adjust society so fewer people feel they have nothing to lose than in the status quo.
- eru 2y ago
  > Cars are traceable. Poison would be the alternative for those that dont want to be apprehended. Sure, but if you are willing to give your life 'to the cause', cars work.
- whycome 2y ago
  Drone licence. Drone pilots licence.
  - coldtea 2y ago
    How does that solve anything at all?
  - s1artibartfast 2y ago
    already exist. Drones are required to have transponders registered to their owner. Doesnt do anything and is trivial to disable or circumnavigate.
cafard 2y ago
Car bombs, and moving car bombs have been around since the 1960s and before.
- eru 2y ago
  I'm talking about just using an unmodified car to run over people. No need to learn anything about bomb making.
  - whycome 2y ago
    The curious thing about the two recent attack events in New Orleans is that most reported the trump tower one as an “exploding cybertruck” but very few even mentioned that the other incident involved an electric ford truck. It should have been absolutely newsworthy and raise questions: evs are actually more dangerous to a crowd. They don’t require space to accelerate. And they don’t make a lot of noise (and one could probably even disable the artificial movement sound). This is kind of a new danger.
    - eru 2y ago
      Yes, it would be, if homicidal people were actually held back by the limitations of ICE cars. But they aren't even really brushing against them. They seem to be mostly limited by their own incompetence. Fortunately.

dylan604 2y ago

well, we did just see a 3D printed weapon used, but the stories about the perp's looks shouted over the other details. I'm sure the gun lobby was pleased with that. so to the idea of school shootings, drone swarms would probably be too much for that, but a kid printing up their own guns to use is definitely something I could see happening. drone swarms would to me still be limited to a more well funded group to achieve instead of a lone wolf scenario.

aaomidi 2y ago

Then they’ll match the deadly output of states that have killed tens of thousands of people I guess.

ricardobeat 2y ago

I believe we’ve passed this point many years ago. These are already extremely cheap and accessible to anyone, you can buy 20-30 small drones for less than the price of one firearm. In reality there are hundreds of other ways someone could devise attacks like these, technology doesn’t really matter that much.

tuumi 2y ago

That time is here. I'm not all that smart and have made several quadcopters from parts. These do not have the geo restrictions that the commercial ones like DJI come with. There are thousands of people across the country doing the same with FPV drones. I live very close to a base that it's not uncommon to see Air Force One lands. I've often wondered if they have some sort of jamming software. It would be very easy to cause problems in a crowd and it's just a matter of time.