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Why compare to 2023 data? there's 2024 data readily available. https://energyandcleanair.org/december-2024-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-

Why compare to 2023 data? there's 2024 data readily available. https://energyandcleanair.org/december-2024-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/ https://energyandcleanair.org/december-2024-monthly-analysis... 1.) there's no need to focus on barrels per day; fuel export revenue per day is more important. and from the link, we can see that it was around 1B EUR per day in 2022, and now it's around 600M EUR per day in Dec. 2024. Not great, but as we will see, it's mainly propped up by China. 2.) top 4 buyers of Russia fossil fuels in December 2024 are China, Turkey, India, and EU. China being top buyer is not surprising, given they are allied in the war - China is cutting off drones to Ukraine while supplying more to Russia. 3.) fossil fuel shipment departures from Russia has steadily declined from 80% in Jan 2022, to less than 20% in December 2024.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> fossil fuel shipment departures from Russia has steadily declined from 80% in Jan 2022, to less than 20% in December 2024 What does No. 3 mean?
- gitdowndirty 2y ago
  It means official Russian shipment of oil has decreased, but what takes its place is the growth of ‘shadow’ tankers. And that reduces G7+ shipping industry’s leverage over Russia. It's in the article linked above. Most of the shadow tankers have helped Russia's oil trade stay alive https://apnews.com/article/russia-sanctions-shadow-fleet-oil-baltic-ukraine-76b66900d599d6e49692643674907fc0 https://apnews.com/article/russia-sanctions-shadow-fleet-oil..., mainly due to Chinese entities. But recently EU has put more sanctions on China for that https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-adopts-new-russia-sanctions-targeting-china-shadow-fleet-2024-12-16/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-adopts-new-russia-sa... The co-mingling of Russian and Chinese naval forces is also very evident recently, with the recent cutting of European underwater cable. Are Russia and China conducting undersea sabotage? | DW News https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ObgVV-HJtI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ObgVV-HJtI
  - SanjayMehta 2y ago
    What does “shadow tankers” even mean? These aren’t insured by the monopolies in the City of London so they’re “ghost” or “shadow” tankers? Doesn’t make their oil carrying capacity any lesser.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > Doesn’t make their oil carrying capacity any lesser They’re derelicts fond of puking up their contents [1]. More practically, dark crude sells at a 20 to 30% discount. (Granted, I know the Indian numbers more confidently than the Chinese refiners’.) [1] https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-shadow-fleet-tanker-oil-spill-black-sea-latvia/ https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-shadow-fleet-tanker-o...
    - tim333 2y ago
      “shadow tankers” mean pretending not to be Russia's tankers so as to evade sanctions.
  - red-iron-pine 2y ago
    > Are Russia and China conducting undersea sabotage? this is still a question? yes, they are.
SanjayMehta 2y ago
When a lot of the oil trade between Russia and China/India and others is done in mutual currencies, revenue predictions are unlikely to be accurate.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> fossil fuel shipment departures from Russia has steadily declined from 80% in Jan 2022, to less than 20% in December 2024 What does No. 3 mean?

gitdowndirty 2y ago
It means official Russian shipment of oil has decreased, but what takes its place is the growth of ‘shadow’ tankers. And that reduces G7+ shipping industry’s leverage over Russia. It's in the article linked above. Most of the shadow tankers have helped Russia's oil trade stay alive https://apnews.com/article/russia-sanctions-shadow-fleet-oil-baltic-ukraine-76b66900d599d6e49692643674907fc0 https://apnews.com/article/russia-sanctions-shadow-fleet-oil..., mainly due to Chinese entities. But recently EU has put more sanctions on China for that https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-adopts-new-russia-sanctions-targeting-china-shadow-fleet-2024-12-16/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-adopts-new-russia-sa... The co-mingling of Russian and Chinese naval forces is also very evident recently, with the recent cutting of European underwater cable. Are Russia and China conducting undersea sabotage? | DW News https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ObgVV-HJtI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ObgVV-HJtI
- SanjayMehta 2y ago
  What does “shadow tankers” even mean? These aren’t insured by the monopolies in the City of London so they’re “ghost” or “shadow” tankers? Doesn’t make their oil carrying capacity any lesser.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > Doesn’t make their oil carrying capacity any lesser They’re derelicts fond of puking up their contents [1]. More practically, dark crude sells at a 20 to 30% discount. (Granted, I know the Indian numbers more confidently than the Chinese refiners’.) [1] https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-shadow-fleet-tanker-oil-spill-black-sea-latvia/ https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-shadow-fleet-tanker-o...
  - tim333 2y ago
    “shadow tankers” mean pretending not to be Russia's tankers so as to evade sanctions.
- red-iron-pine 2y ago
  > Are Russia and China conducting undersea sabotage? this is still a question? yes, they are.

SanjayMehta 2y ago

When a lot of the oil trade between Russia and China/India and others is done in mutual currencies, revenue predictions are unlikely to be accurate.