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Is there anybody on here with the military chops to tell me why these wouldn't just be sitting ducks? You could bomb them with plains, you could torpedo them w

by rhelz 2y ago

Is there anybody on here with the military chops to tell me why these wouldn't just be sitting ducks? You could bomb them with plains, you could torpedo them with submarines, you could mine the area where they land....

krapp 2y ago
Because China is a nuclear power. Nuclear powers get to do what they want, as per the precedent set by the US.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > Nuclear powers get to do what they want, as per the precedent set by the US It's a Cold War precedent. (Since the Cold War, one underlined by America, Russia and China.) America had a global nuclear monopoly for years and didn't exploit it.
exabrial 2y ago
They certainly wouldn't be the first waive. China would start with cyber attacks, the destroy communication infrastructure (fiber, satellites), jam communications, fire standoff weapons, then land bombardment, and then this. Roughly in that order if I've watched enough simulations (no military background here btw, just repeating).
- hker 2y ago
  > destroy communication infrastructure Chinese ships are just “testing the waters” this week by cutting the Internet cables near Taiwan. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42615939 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42615939 "Chinese Vessel Cuts Taiwan Internet Cable in Apparent Sabotage" https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/09/china/undersea-cable-taiwan-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/09/china/undersea-cable-taiwan-i... "A cut undersea internet cable is making Taiwan worried about ‘gray zone’ tactics from Beijing"
maxglute 2y ago
I mean they are. Realistically some will be hit during intial exchanges, current specialized amphib like this vessel mostly used for training and CONEMPs. PRC will rebuild at leisure once TW is defanged / US removed from equation, last year they built more dry tonnage than entire 5 year US ship building program during WW2. They can crank these out during amphib phase... By the time these are employed, landing will mostly be largely uncontested. TBH by the time these are employed TW will have no energy, no calories, no running water, no sewage etc... they'll probably be looking forward to logistics barges to bring in supplies.
- Leary 2y ago
  Slight tangent: thoughts on the J-36 in a hypothetical Taiwan scenario?
  - maxglute 2y ago
    1IC, Guam, Alaska maybe Darwin and Diego Garcia standoff strikes. Or enabler strikes (tankers/awacs/replenishment etc). Also perhaps even east Europe (baltics, east germany, scanadinavian peninsula). IMO very not... polite to talk about - MENA strikes. Downstream of Malacca / energy blockade is US financial pressure to MENA energy exporters to simply not export to PRC... obviating need for physical blockade, of course all sorts of potential transhipping sheninagans to circumvent. PRC IRBM+s can already hit MENA energy facilities, J36 range = hitting US MENA military basing, at greater scale. Basically sharper sword of damacles on MENA (and NATO whose dependant on MENA energy) on hedging/cooperating with US security interests in TW scenario. Due to PRC geographic location (5000km = 3000km j36 + 2000km+ standoff), J36 is functionally light strategic bomber that can be based in mainland to hit INDOPACOM, CENTCOM, EUROCOM without need for forward basing logistics. If J36 has supercruise, it can hit those areas with standoff munitions within probably 5 hours (vs B2/B21 missions are like 50+ hours from CONUS so there's geographic multiplier affect per J36 frame). Fleet of J36s creates 5000km bubble of high tempo deterence. Then consider procurement rate differences (100 B21s by 2040s vs how many J36s can be build), and then potential PLA engine / missile upgrading (i.e. extend range by 1000km UK enters picture), or tanking over RU and suddently CONUS north west CONUS / Alberta oil infra is in range.
credit_guy 2y ago
There are countermeasures for all contingencies. > you could bomb them with planes Not necessarily. If a plane has a combat radius of 600 miles and it can't take off from within 1000 miles of the theater, and it can't refuel once in the air, then it's tricky. Maybe the planes have very long range missiles, but those can be electronically jammed, and the targets are moving. The US has both refueling tankers and B2s that have a very long range. But refueling tankers are not stealthy, so China has a chance to take them down, and B2's are extraordinarily expensive. > you could torpedo them with submarines Once a submarine launches a torpedo, it ceases to be stealthy. Of course, it can regain its stealth mode if it submerges quickly and leaves the area, but it becomes a game of cat and mouse. It's possible for China to infest the area with lots of unmanned underwater vehicles that could patrol and once an enemy submarine is identify, keep track of it. > you could mine the area where they land There are ways to get rid of the mines. Lots of ways. Plus, if China feigns an invasion and doesn't actually invade, what is Taiwan to do? Leave the mines there? Permanently? That is quite hazardous for the civilian population. If China feigns 4 times and attacks for good the 5th time, will this be a problem? Bottom line: these questions that you are asking and I am answering: there are a few thousand people in China that are asking the same questions and trying to come up with answers, and then some are wargaming the answers and some are trying to come up with answers to the answers to the answers. There are people in the US who do the same. But China's threat to invade Taiwan should not be taken lightly.

by rhelz 2y ago

krapp 2y ago

Because China is a nuclear power. Nuclear powers get to do what they want, as per the precedent set by the US.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Nuclear powers get to do what they want, as per the precedent set by the US It's a Cold War precedent. (Since the Cold War, one underlined by America, Russia and China.) America had a global nuclear monopoly for years and didn't exploit it.

exabrial 2y ago

They certainly wouldn't be the first waive. China would start with cyber attacks, the destroy communication infrastructure (fiber, satellites), jam communications, fire standoff weapons, then land bombardment, and then this. Roughly in that order if I've watched enough simulations (no military background here btw, just repeating).

hker 2y ago
> destroy communication infrastructure Chinese ships are just “testing the waters” this week by cutting the Internet cables near Taiwan. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42615939 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42615939 "Chinese Vessel Cuts Taiwan Internet Cable in Apparent Sabotage" https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/09/china/undersea-cable-taiwan-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/09/china/undersea-cable-taiwan-i... "A cut undersea internet cable is making Taiwan worried about ‘gray zone’ tactics from Beijing"

maxglute 2y ago

I mean they are. Realistically some will be hit during intial exchanges, current specialized amphib like this vessel mostly used for training and CONEMPs. PRC will rebuild at leisure once TW is defanged / US removed from equation, last year they built more dry tonnage than entire 5 year US ship building program during WW2. They can crank these out during amphib phase... By the time these are employed, landing will mostly be largely uncontested. TBH by the time these are employed TW will have no energy, no calories, no running water, no sewage etc... they'll probably be looking forward to logistics barges to bring in supplies.

Leary 2y ago
Slight tangent: thoughts on the J-36 in a hypothetical Taiwan scenario?
- maxglute 2y ago
  1IC, Guam, Alaska maybe Darwin and Diego Garcia standoff strikes. Or enabler strikes (tankers/awacs/replenishment etc). Also perhaps even east Europe (baltics, east germany, scanadinavian peninsula). IMO very not... polite to talk about - MENA strikes. Downstream of Malacca / energy blockade is US financial pressure to MENA energy exporters to simply not export to PRC... obviating need for physical blockade, of course all sorts of potential transhipping sheninagans to circumvent. PRC IRBM+s can already hit MENA energy facilities, J36 range = hitting US MENA military basing, at greater scale. Basically sharper sword of damacles on MENA (and NATO whose dependant on MENA energy) on hedging/cooperating with US security interests in TW scenario. Due to PRC geographic location (5000km = 3000km j36 + 2000km+ standoff), J36 is functionally light strategic bomber that can be based in mainland to hit INDOPACOM, CENTCOM, EUROCOM without need for forward basing logistics. If J36 has supercruise, it can hit those areas with standoff munitions within probably 5 hours (vs B2/B21 missions are like 50+ hours from CONUS so there's geographic multiplier affect per J36 frame). Fleet of J36s creates 5000km bubble of high tempo deterence. Then consider procurement rate differences (100 B21s by 2040s vs how many J36s can be build), and then potential PLA engine / missile upgrading (i.e. extend range by 1000km UK enters picture), or tanking over RU and suddently CONUS north west CONUS / Alberta oil infra is in range.

credit_guy 2y ago

There are countermeasures for all contingencies. > you could bomb them with planes Not necessarily. If a plane has a combat radius of 600 miles and it can't take off from within 1000 miles of the theater, and it can't refuel once in the air, then it's tricky. Maybe the planes have very long range missiles, but those can be electronically jammed, and the targets are moving. The US has both refueling tankers and B2s that have a very long range. But refueling tankers are not stealthy, so China has a chance to take them down, and B2's are extraordinarily expensive. > you could torpedo them with submarines Once a submarine launches a torpedo, it ceases to be stealthy. Of course, it can regain its stealth mode if it submerges quickly and leaves the area, but it becomes a game of cat and mouse. It's possible for China to infest the area with lots of unmanned underwater vehicles that could patrol and once an enemy submarine is identify, keep track of it. > you could mine the area where they land There are ways to get rid of the mines. Lots of ways. Plus, if China feigns an invasion and doesn't actually invade, what is Taiwan to do? Leave the mines there? Permanently? That is quite hazardous for the civilian population. If China feigns 4 times and attacks for good the 5th time, will this be a problem? Bottom line: these questions that you are asking and I am answering: there are a few thousand people in China that are asking the same questions and trying to come up with answers, and then some are wargaming the answers and some are trying to come up with answers to the answers to the answers. There are people in the US who do the same. But China's threat to invade Taiwan should not be taken lightly.