Tetlock's research tended to focus on very specific, falsifiable True/False questions rather than open-ended questions with predicted quantities in them. A goo

Tetlock's research tended to focus on very specific, falsifiable True/False questions rather than open-ended questions with predicted quantities in them. A good Tetlock question might be: "Will ChatGPT-5 be released in 2025?" But not: "Will we see AGI in 2025?" (too non-specific on what AGI is) Even this one is iffy: "Will OpenAI's valuation increase by at least 50% in 2025?" (because there's a number in the statement) Once you have a binary question, superforecasters can then start doing Fermi estimation to find bounds, and then initializing and updating Bayesian priors based on new information and continuous research. The answers are typically of the form, "Yes, with a 76.2% probability." So "superforecasters" are prediction specialists on a narrowly defined scope, but they are not prophets. The kinds of predictions that they make don't make for fun, entertaining reading.