3 ms·
I always have a definitional problem with predictions. I mean, it's moot whether a specific prediction is right or wrong as long as it doesn't help us to unders
by sinuhe69 2y ago
I always have a definitional problem with predictions. I mean, it's moot whether a specific prediction is right or wrong as long as it doesn't help us to understand the big picture and the trends.
Take, for example, the prediction about "robots can autonomously navigate all US households". Why all? From the business POV, 80% of the market is "all" in a practical sense, and most people will consider navigation around the home as "solved" if they can do it for the majority of households and with virtually no intervention. Hilarious situations will arise that amuse the folks; video of clumsy robots will flood the internet instead of cats and dogs, but for the business site, it's lucrative enough to produce and sell them en masse.
Another question of interest is how is the trend? What will the approximate cost of such a robot be? How many US households will adopt such a robot by which time, as they have adopted washing machines and dishwashers. Will we see a linear adoption or rather a logistic adoption? These are the more interesting questions than just whether I'm right or wrong.