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Good example of everything that can wrong with a prediction market if left unchecked. Don't like that Waymo broke your prediction? Fine just move your goalposts
by coderintherye 2y ago
Good example of everything that can wrong with a prediction market if left unchecked. Don't like that Waymo broke your prediction? Fine just move your goalposts. Like that prediction came true but on the wrong timeframe? Just move the goal posts.
Glad Polymarket (and other related markets) exist so they can put actual goal posts in place with mechanisms that require certain outcomes in order to finalize on a prediction result.
- sashank_1509 2y agoWell said, shows even the most accomplished humans have the same biases as the rest of us when not held accountable
- littlestymaar 2y ago> Glad Polymarket (and other related markets) exist so Polymarket is a great way to incentive people into making their predictions happen, with all clandestine tools at their disposal, which is definitely not what you want for your society generally.
- HDThoreaun 2y agoPolymarket suffers from the same problem. This market https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31/ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31?tid=1736539665436 https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31... was resolved in an extremely contentious way.