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I think some jobs will definitely disappear / change due to LLMs. It's already happening, I can tell how I personally effectively elimitated 1-2 jobs around me
by Maro 2y ago
I think some jobs will definitely disappear / change due to LLMs. It's already happening, I can tell how I personally effectively elimitated 1-2 jobs around me in 2024 thanks to my $10/mo ChatGPT subscription.
I work at a large non-tech company. We have a lot of "Strategy people" and "Strategy teams". What these teams actually do is: create and submit to each other internal plans/KPIs/OKRs, quarterly updates, budgets, and so on. Strategy people are all ex-consultants (many are ex-McKinsey), they have have little domain knowledge.
Before ChatGPT, the way it would go is that they'd ask me something like, what is our annual plan for "AI", what is my quarterly update on "Data Platforms", etc. I'd give them some raw input, sometimes I have to do extra work to make it presentable, sometimes they do most of it. The final product is almost always some sort of PPT. Effectively there's 3 phases:
1. I write actual raw (semi-technical) content: usually about 5-10, maximum a page worth of condensed bullet points. I can do this very quickly, in 10-20-30 minutes, since I just have to throw down what I'm doing all day anyway (well, the teams I manage).
2. Convert those raw points into some sort of narrative (if it's a plan), or summary (if it's an update). What part is relevant for a non-technical exec? What part makes the org look good? etc.
3. Convert the narrative to a PTT.
Before ChatGPT, I would do 1 and some of 2, and the strategy people would do most of 2 and 3. After ChatGPT, I do 1, I use ChatGPT to do 2 (takes 20-60 minutes), and strategy people now only do 3. This means that in our org, ChatGPT has taken out about 1-2 jobs out of the strategy team (headcount was closed).
Once AI is good enough to make the PPTs (upload 2-3 older PPTs to pick up the template and style, plus upload the current narrative, to build new PPT), I will be able to make the whole deck in 1-2 hours, without any strategy people. (Not that I want this, because then I'd be on the hook for the whole process, emailing, etc.) Note that since this is a recurring internal exercise, actual quality doesn't have to be super high.
Perhaps once we reach this level of automation people will notice that the whole exercise is inefficient and look for better ways to manage the company.