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> there's not enough supply in and around the jobs Why the anger at immigrants lately? Hint: 11.2 million illegal immigrants need to live somewhere. (Personall

> there's not enough supply in and around the jobs Why the anger at immigrants lately? Hint: 11.2 million illegal immigrants need to live somewhere. (Personally, I think the smaller regional banks have more responsibility to answer for this.) If Trump is successful in his deportation efforts, house prices will likely fall through the floor, and (huge surprise) the poorer and younger ends of society will be extremely grateful, possibly even electing his successor figure. This could have been easily avoided if adequate housing had been constructed.

arcticbull 2y ago
> Why the anger at immigrants lately? Hint: 11.2 million illegal immigrants need to live somewhere. Are they really buying this extremely expensive real estate with their low wages? Seems impossible. More likely, they will lower the already very cheap housing in the middle of nowhere. > If Trump is successful in his deportation efforts, house prices will likely fall through the floor, and (huge surprise) the poorer end of society will be extremely grateful, possibly even electing his successor figure. Far more Americans live in owned-homes than not. That's exactly why this problem has been so intractable in the first place. Those folks will not be happy.
- gjsman-1000 2y ago
  > Far more Americans live in owned-homes than not. Boomers are 21% of the population, but 38% of the homes. Only 54% of Millennials are homeowners. It's great if you're in the wealthy populous old generation; if you're young and hungry or even just an average person in their 30s, you're angry. > Are they really buying this extremely expensive real estate with their low wages? Seems impossible. No; [illegal immigrant] families pool multiple low wages together and buy houses together.
  - arcticbull 2y ago
    > Boomers are 21% of the population, but 38% of the homes. Only 54% of Millennials are homeowners. 2/3 of Americans own homes. > No; families pool multiple low wages together and buy houses together. So the whole family will be mad when their home equity goes down.
    - gjsman-1000 2y ago
      > 2/3 of Americans own homes. You keep saying this like it's a good thing. That's a disaster - China has 93%. Romania has 95%. Russia has 92%. India has 86%. A 2/3s homeownership rate is an embarrassment, and shows we haven't addressed this problem sufficiently. > So the whole family will be mad when their home equity goes down. "Don't fix the system; better think of those short term equity values! Even better, don't build housing!"
      - arcticbull 2y ago
        > You keep saying this like it's a good thing. That's a disaster - China has 93%. Romania has 95%. Russia has 92%. India has 86%. A 2/3s homeownership rate is an embarrassment, and shows we haven't addressed this problem sufficiently. I'm specifically responding to the idea that "most Americans" would love to see house prices drop. Only 1/3 of Americans would like to see house prices drop, the rest would be mad. That's why this hasn't been addressed in the past. > "Don't fix the system; better think of those short term equity values! Even better, don't build housing!" I'm advocating for building more houses, and am pointing out that the immigration axis is irrelevant to the cost of housing in HCOL areas.
      - est31 2y ago
        > China has 93% Note that "homeowner" in China means leaseholder. So strictly speaking, they aren't really homeowners. Land in cities is owned by the state as per the Chinese constitution, and then pieced up and handed out to citizens via temporary (decades long) leases.
pizza 2y ago
You think illegal immigrants are the bottleneck driving housing prices?
- gjsman-1000 2y ago
  If even 1/10th of them own houses; that's a million homes; so yes, it's definitely a factor.
  - pizza 2y ago
    I just don't see how adding one more home for every 350 people in this country really makes prices fall through the floor
    - gjsman-1000 2y ago
      116 of those people don't own homes of any kind; partially because children can't buy homes, elderly people can't maintain homes, and everyone else is too poor (or married). Of the remaining 234, 38% are boomers, who almost never sell homes. There are now only 146 people. How many want to sell homes? Only 8.7% of people move each year, so only 12 of those people are open to the possibility. Now it's 1 out of 12. That's significant. That's not even considering other factors, like Gen X becoming increasingly hesitant over time to the prospect of moving, while being the second largest generation to own homes. They own 24% of the homes and are very "sticky", so it might easily be more like 1 in 9 in terms of actual sales. It's actually even more amazing than that - we don't even need the above napkin math. 4.62 million homes were sold in 2024, 4.09 million in 2023, 5.03 million in 2022. Add a million homes, increase supply by 20% (1 in 5), that's going to leave a dent. After all, according to Redfin, only 2.5% of homes change hands every year.
hahahacorn 2y ago
Immigrants are such a relatively small portion of housing supply pressure, compared to the overwhelming positive affect they have in driving other CPI basket items supply up (and therefore, keeping prices low). Getting rid of immigrants will make houses a bit cheaper, and everything else more expensive. Increasing property taxes so it isn't so cheap to carry underutilized housing, and getting rid of zoning regulations written with the intention of artificially limiting housing supply, will actually cause housing prices to fall through the floor, without ruining the rest of our economic output and supply of CPI basket goods.
- davidw 2y ago
  Immigrants are also disproportionately involved in the construction of desperately needed new housing.

arcticbull 2y ago

> Why the anger at immigrants lately? Hint: 11.2 million illegal immigrants need to live somewhere. Are they really buying this extremely expensive real estate with their low wages? Seems impossible. More likely, they will lower the already very cheap housing in the middle of nowhere. > If Trump is successful in his deportation efforts, house prices will likely fall through the floor, and (huge surprise) the poorer end of society will be extremely grateful, possibly even electing his successor figure. Far more Americans live in owned-homes than not. That's exactly why this problem has been so intractable in the first place. Those folks will not be happy.

gjsman-1000 2y ago
> Far more Americans live in owned-homes than not. Boomers are 21% of the population, but 38% of the homes. Only 54% of Millennials are homeowners. It's great if you're in the wealthy populous old generation; if you're young and hungry or even just an average person in their 30s, you're angry. > Are they really buying this extremely expensive real estate with their low wages? Seems impossible. No; [illegal immigrant] families pool multiple low wages together and buy houses together.
- arcticbull 2y ago
  > Boomers are 21% of the population, but 38% of the homes. Only 54% of Millennials are homeowners. 2/3 of Americans own homes. > No; families pool multiple low wages together and buy houses together. So the whole family will be mad when their home equity goes down.
  - gjsman-1000 2y ago
    > 2/3 of Americans own homes. You keep saying this like it's a good thing. That's a disaster - China has 93%. Romania has 95%. Russia has 92%. India has 86%. A 2/3s homeownership rate is an embarrassment, and shows we haven't addressed this problem sufficiently. > So the whole family will be mad when their home equity goes down. "Don't fix the system; better think of those short term equity values! Even better, don't build housing!"
    - arcticbull 2y ago
      > You keep saying this like it's a good thing. That's a disaster - China has 93%. Romania has 95%. Russia has 92%. India has 86%. A 2/3s homeownership rate is an embarrassment, and shows we haven't addressed this problem sufficiently. I'm specifically responding to the idea that "most Americans" would love to see house prices drop. Only 1/3 of Americans would like to see house prices drop, the rest would be mad. That's why this hasn't been addressed in the past. > "Don't fix the system; better think of those short term equity values! Even better, don't build housing!" I'm advocating for building more houses, and am pointing out that the immigration axis is irrelevant to the cost of housing in HCOL areas.
    - est31 2y ago
      > China has 93% Note that "homeowner" in China means leaseholder. So strictly speaking, they aren't really homeowners. Land in cities is owned by the state as per the Chinese constitution, and then pieced up and handed out to citizens via temporary (decades long) leases.

pizza 2y ago

You think illegal immigrants are the bottleneck driving housing prices?

gjsman-1000 2y ago
If even 1/10th of them own houses; that's a million homes; so yes, it's definitely a factor.
- pizza 2y ago
  I just don't see how adding one more home for every 350 people in this country really makes prices fall through the floor
  - gjsman-1000 2y ago
    116 of those people don't own homes of any kind; partially because children can't buy homes, elderly people can't maintain homes, and everyone else is too poor (or married). Of the remaining 234, 38% are boomers, who almost never sell homes. There are now only 146 people. How many want to sell homes? Only 8.7% of people move each year, so only 12 of those people are open to the possibility. Now it's 1 out of 12. That's significant. That's not even considering other factors, like Gen X becoming increasingly hesitant over time to the prospect of moving, while being the second largest generation to own homes. They own 24% of the homes and are very "sticky", so it might easily be more like 1 in 9 in terms of actual sales. It's actually even more amazing than that - we don't even need the above napkin math. 4.62 million homes were sold in 2024, 4.09 million in 2023, 5.03 million in 2022. Add a million homes, increase supply by 20% (1 in 5), that's going to leave a dent. After all, according to Redfin, only 2.5% of homes change hands every year.

hahahacorn 2y ago

Immigrants are such a relatively small portion of housing supply pressure, compared to the overwhelming positive affect they have in driving other CPI basket items supply up (and therefore, keeping prices low). Getting rid of immigrants will make houses a bit cheaper, and everything else more expensive. Increasing property taxes so it isn't so cheap to carry underutilized housing, and getting rid of zoning regulations written with the intention of artificially limiting housing supply, will actually cause housing prices to fall through the floor, without ruining the rest of our economic output and supply of CPI basket goods.

davidw 2y ago
Immigrants are also disproportionately involved in the construction of desperately needed new housing.