2 ms·

The build up of lots dry vegetation (fuel load) ( in a drought) must have been a contribution to fire spread. The high winds certainly another trigger in it s

The build up of lots dry vegetation (fuel load) ( in a drought) must have been a contribution to fire spread. The high winds certainly another trigger in it spreading quickly .. What could be done to prevent a re occurrence ?

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> What could be done to prevent a re occurrence ? Layman here. But I’m seeing three policy failures (and opportunities): 1. Lack of home construction and densification. This not only raises housing costs, it also makes advanced fire-risk mitigation economically infeasible—an apartment building can pay for better fire defences than a single-family home. 2. Basic emergency preparedness and NIMBY environmental restrictions. Hydrants running out of water [1] is inexcusable. Same, too, for the mayor being overseas [2] and blaming “months of little rain and winds that had not been seen in the city for at least 14 years” for the fires while citing zero emergency measures taken as a result, e.g. clearing fire walls around developments. 3. Subsidising building and living in wildfire-prone areas [3]. California’s insurance regulators have effectively banned insurers from considering forward-looking risks, which distorts the developer and homeowning markets. [1] https://apnews.com/article/wildfire-california-climate-603512236222f82c77901db1039e959f https://apnews.com/article/wildfire-california-climate-60351... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/09/us/los-angeles-mayor-fire-response.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/09/us/los-angeles-mayor-fire... [3] https://apnews.com/article/california-increases-home-insurance-wildfires-56486f80c0f5f5e63b90db06d230f1d1 https://apnews.com/article/california-increases-home-insuran...
- oldpersonintx 2y ago
  [dead]
GeekyBear 2y ago
We've seen people bring in goats to create a fire break in the past. > “The goats have been fabulous. They truly eat their weight in gold,” said Randle Swan, the library’s Acting Deputy Director and Supervisory Curator. During a 2019 wildfire, “the herd cleared the underbrush so well that the fire was unable to maintain the heat it needed to keep moving and was able to be extinguished before reaching the Library and Museum’s main structure.” https://www.archives.gov/news/articles/reagan-library-goats https://www.archives.gov/news/articles/reagan-library-goats Goats seem perfect for the task, since they are autonomous, functional on any terrain, and self replicating.
- wiradikusuma 2y ago
  And decommissioning them can be delicious.
dredmorbius 2y ago
Ironically, the cycle particularly in southern California is rain leads to fires leads to landslides. Heavy-rain winters (as SoCal has experienced for the past two years) lead to robust plant growth. Followed by a drought, that dries out, contributing to fuel load (as SoCal has experienced this past season). Intense fires remove not only the surface growth but burn out roots and sterlise soil, which makes it vulnerable to washouts in the next heavy rains (probable in the next few seasons), which causes its own major damage. We're presently at stage two of that three-stage cycle. As for prevention: virtually nothing. The landscape will burn. The question is what human structures on or near that landscape will do. The intensity of wind + burning brand streams makes even fairly robust defensive measures of limited efficacy. This image of palm trees burning next to a McDonalds gives some sense: <https://imgur.com/gallery/this-is-surreal-9nimUMS https://imgur.com/gallery/this-is-surreal-9nimUMS> To armour a house against that sort of onslaught, not only do all surfaces have to be fire-resistant (tile, stucco, glass, brick, etc.), but there can be no penetrations, and structures, inconveniently, require ventilation. I'm not saying it's impossible (see the Getty Villa as an example of a structure which has survived, so far), but it is quite challenging. I suspect we will see broader adoption of such requirements, eventually. Given the damage in, e.g., Altadena, and recent years' damage in Santa Rosa and Ventura, the idea that greater Los Angeles and environs are immune to an utterly devastating urban firestorm strike me as highly optimistic. That need not prove a false belief in this incident, but I could see it occurring in the next few decades, quite possibly sooner.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> What could be done to prevent a re occurrence ? Layman here. But I’m seeing three policy failures (and opportunities): 1. Lack of home construction and densification. This not only raises housing costs, it also makes advanced fire-risk mitigation economically infeasible—an apartment building can pay for better fire defences than a single-family home. 2. Basic emergency preparedness and NIMBY environmental restrictions. Hydrants running out of water [1] is inexcusable. Same, too, for the mayor being overseas [2] and blaming “months of little rain and winds that had not been seen in the city for at least 14 years” for the fires while citing zero emergency measures taken as a result, e.g. clearing fire walls around developments. 3. Subsidising building and living in wildfire-prone areas [3]. California’s insurance regulators have effectively banned insurers from considering forward-looking risks, which distorts the developer and homeowning markets. [1] https://apnews.com/article/wildfire-california-climate-603512236222f82c77901db1039e959f https://apnews.com/article/wildfire-california-climate-60351... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/09/us/los-angeles-mayor-fire-response.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/09/us/los-angeles-mayor-fire... [3] https://apnews.com/article/california-increases-home-insurance-wildfires-56486f80c0f5f5e63b90db06d230f1d1 https://apnews.com/article/california-increases-home-insuran...

oldpersonintx 2y ago
[dead]

GeekyBear 2y ago

We've seen people bring in goats to create a fire break in the past. > “The goats have been fabulous. They truly eat their weight in gold,” said Randle Swan, the library’s Acting Deputy Director and Supervisory Curator. During a 2019 wildfire, “the herd cleared the underbrush so well that the fire was unable to maintain the heat it needed to keep moving and was able to be extinguished before reaching the Library and Museum’s main structure.” https://www.archives.gov/news/articles/reagan-library-goats https://www.archives.gov/news/articles/reagan-library-goats Goats seem perfect for the task, since they are autonomous, functional on any terrain, and self replicating.

wiradikusuma 2y ago
And decommissioning them can be delicious.

dredmorbius 2y ago

Ironically, the cycle particularly in southern California is rain leads to fires leads to landslides. Heavy-rain winters (as SoCal has experienced for the past two years) lead to robust plant growth. Followed by a drought, that dries out, contributing to fuel load (as SoCal has experienced this past season). Intense fires remove not only the surface growth but burn out roots and sterlise soil, which makes it vulnerable to washouts in the next heavy rains (probable in the next few seasons), which causes its own major damage. We're presently at stage two of that three-stage cycle. As for prevention: virtually nothing. The landscape will burn. The question is what human structures on or near that landscape will do. The intensity of wind + burning brand streams makes even fairly robust defensive measures of limited efficacy. This image of palm trees burning next to a McDonalds gives some sense: <https://imgur.com/gallery/this-is-surreal-9nimUMS https://imgur.com/gallery/this-is-surreal-9nimUMS> To armour a house against that sort of onslaught, not only do all surfaces have to be fire-resistant (tile, stucco, glass, brick, etc.), but there can be no penetrations, and structures, inconveniently, require ventilation. I'm not saying it's impossible (see the Getty Villa as an example of a structure which has survived, so far), but it is quite challenging. I suspect we will see broader adoption of such requirements, eventually. Given the damage in, e.g., Altadena, and recent years' damage in Santa Rosa and Ventura, the idea that greater Los Angeles and environs are immune to an utterly devastating urban firestorm strike me as highly optimistic. That need not prove a false belief in this incident, but I could see it occurring in the next few decades, quite possibly sooner.