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Right, they seem highly volatile/variable. The thinking is that showing the 99th percentile / range of possibilities would cover that, if it's based on historic

by tikkun 2y ago

Right, they seem highly volatile/variable. The thinking is that showing the 99th percentile / range of possibilities would cover that, if it's based on historical data - does that seem right to you or no, and if not why not?

lazide 2y ago
It would be like if someone you never met came up to you and held a revolver to your head, and told you they were going to play Russian roulette. If they told you the 99% percentile odds of the next trigger pull, would it be okay to stay if you thought you liked the odds? And if you were silly enough to believe him, who would be to blame if he was wrong? Oh, here are some more [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yarnell_Hill_Fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yarnell_Hill_Fire]. Oh and [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Griffith_Park_fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Griffith_Park_fire]. And [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackwater_Fire_of_1937 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackwater_Fire_of_1937] There is a reason why firefighters are considered to be one of the most heroic professionals. And some more (not all related to wildfires though) [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_deadliest_firefighter_disasters_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_deadliest_firefi...]
- lostlogin 2y ago
  Prisoners one day, hero firefighters earning a dollar an hour the next. https://www.businessinsider.com/california-fire-inmate-firefighters-battle-blazes-earn-27-day-danger-2025-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/california-fire-inmate-firef...
gamblor956 2y ago
The authorities already do the type of broad analysis you're suggesting. That's how they generate the evacuation maps. If you mean a more specific analysis: there's no way to do that with a level of detail or accuracy that would be relevant to individual decision-making. There are simply too many variables in the air, in the fuel, and even in the fire itself.

by tikkun 2y ago

lazide 2y ago

It would be like if someone you never met came up to you and held a revolver to your head, and told you they were going to play Russian roulette. If they told you the 99% percentile odds of the next trigger pull, would it be okay to stay if you thought you liked the odds? And if you were silly enough to believe him, who would be to blame if he was wrong? Oh, here are some more [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yarnell_Hill_Fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yarnell_Hill_Fire]. Oh and [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Griffith_Park_fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Griffith_Park_fire]. And [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackwater_Fire_of_1937 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackwater_Fire_of_1937] There is a reason why firefighters are considered to be one of the most heroic professionals. And some more (not all related to wildfires though) [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_deadliest_firefighter_disasters_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_deadliest_firefi...]

lostlogin 2y ago
Prisoners one day, hero firefighters earning a dollar an hour the next. https://www.businessinsider.com/california-fire-inmate-firefighters-battle-blazes-earn-27-day-danger-2025-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/california-fire-inmate-firef...

gamblor956 2y ago

The authorities already do the type of broad analysis you're suggesting. That's how they generate the evacuation maps. If you mean a more specific analysis: there's no way to do that with a level of detail or accuracy that would be relevant to individual decision-making. There are simply too many variables in the air, in the fuel, and even in the fire itself.