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Polls are only as good as the pollster. Watch how “popular” Kamala was in polls because it was the “right” thing to say. Most people (including rich boomers) I

Polls are only as good as the pollster. Watch how “popular” Kamala was in polls because it was the “right” thing to say. Most people (including rich boomers) I know are at minimum ambivalent to Luigi with many actively supporting him. But if asked on record they would deny it.

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roenxi 2y ago
Kamala did quite well in the election, it was close. In hindsight I don't think there was any particular evidence the polls were inaccurate. Poll-watchers like fivethirtyeight.com predicted that the election was a coin toss (with the toss sliiightly biased towards Trump up until their final forecasts from what I recall) but whoever won the coin toss would probably achieve a comfortable victory. That is pretty much what transpired.
- throwaway48476 2y ago
  Then why the disparity with private polling.
  - roenxi 2y ago
    If you want me to refer to private polling you're going to need to hint which poll you mean. I'm working off public data which was pretty accurate on aggregate, there weren't any surprises on election night which was something of a https://www.xkcd.com/1131/ https://www.xkcd.com/1131/ moment. Eyeballing https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ it looks to be in 1-sigma territory or maybe just venturing in to 2-sigmas.
    - throwaway48476 2y ago
      https://www.yahoo.com/news/kamala-harris-advisers-internal-polling-225513524.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/kamala-harris-advisers-internal-p... Leaks of the Biden polling had trump getting 400 EC votes. Public polling is a PR exercise to convince you how to vote, the intention is to deceive.
      - roenxi 2y ago
        I dunno. Given the public polls seemed to be accurate in hindsight that just suggests Harris' internal polling was off. They were the C-team that were losing to Trump with Biden and struggling to match his raw charisma with Harris' campaigning. Maybe their pollster wasn't very good or they didn't do that much polling? We can't really assess what was going on inside the campaign in that way.
- Dracophoenix 2y ago
  > In hindsight I don't think there was any particular evidence the polls were inaccurate. One notable exception was The Des Moines Register poll the day before the election.
energy123 2y ago
Presidential polls were "inaccurate" by only a few %, which is to be expected. But to be so inaccurate that >50% support for Luigi is reported instead as only 17% would be staggering and unprecedented, requiring nothing short of fraud.

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roenxi 2y ago

Kamala did quite well in the election, it was close. In hindsight I don't think there was any particular evidence the polls were inaccurate. Poll-watchers like fivethirtyeight.com predicted that the election was a coin toss (with the toss sliiightly biased towards Trump up until their final forecasts from what I recall) but whoever won the coin toss would probably achieve a comfortable victory. That is pretty much what transpired.

throwaway48476 2y ago
Then why the disparity with private polling.
- roenxi 2y ago
  If you want me to refer to private polling you're going to need to hint which poll you mean. I'm working off public data which was pretty accurate on aggregate, there weren't any surprises on election night which was something of a https://www.xkcd.com/1131/ https://www.xkcd.com/1131/ moment. Eyeballing https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ it looks to be in 1-sigma territory or maybe just venturing in to 2-sigmas.
  - throwaway48476 2y ago
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/kamala-harris-advisers-internal-polling-225513524.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/kamala-harris-advisers-internal-p... Leaks of the Biden polling had trump getting 400 EC votes. Public polling is a PR exercise to convince you how to vote, the intention is to deceive.
    - roenxi 2y ago
      I dunno. Given the public polls seemed to be accurate in hindsight that just suggests Harris' internal polling was off. They were the C-team that were losing to Trump with Biden and struggling to match his raw charisma with Harris' campaigning. Maybe their pollster wasn't very good or they didn't do that much polling? We can't really assess what was going on inside the campaign in that way.
Dracophoenix 2y ago
> In hindsight I don't think there was any particular evidence the polls were inaccurate. One notable exception was The Des Moines Register poll the day before the election.

energy123 2y ago

Presidential polls were "inaccurate" by only a few %, which is to be expected. But to be so inaccurate that >50% support for Luigi is reported instead as only 17% would be staggering and unprecedented, requiring nothing short of fraud.