I think metabolic adaptation plays a larger role. In this Biggest Loser followup study, even after six years (!), participants' resting metabolism burned 20% fe

I think metabolic adaptation plays a larger role. In this Biggest Loser followup study, even after six years (!), participants' resting metabolism burned 20% fewer calories than a "typical person of their current weight": https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4989512/#:~:text=compared%20to%20baseline.-,Table%201.,-Anthropometric%20and%20energy https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4989512/#:~:text=co... > In contrast, a matched group of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery patients who experienced significant metabolic adaptation 6 months after the surgery had no detectable metabolic adaptation after 1 year despite continued weight loss (17). It is intriguing to speculate that the lack of long-term metabolic adaptation following bariatric surgery may reflect a permanent resetting of the body weight set-point (18).