4 ms·
Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current Risk "Low Chance")
- nathan_young 2y agoHappy to answer questions as to the sources used (Kalshi and Metaculus) and the conditional probabilities assigned: - P(bird flu as bad as covid | 10,000 US cases) = .5 - P(bird flu as bad as covid | CDC travel advisory) = .1
- llmfan 2y agoSeems too narrow to be a website. Maybe a site where you get overviews like this... to a prompt. "Make me a dashboard on the current Moon race. And one on Taiwan invsaion. And one on AGI timelines." "Yes, send me an email if there's a major shift in any of them"
- llmfan 2y agoactually, a more practical idea would just be a generic "pandemic risk" site.
- nathan_young 2y agoIf there is interest here I may add other streams. Would you sign up to such a site?