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A superintelligence, at a bare minimum, equates to an exponential increase in software development capacity for everyone to the point at which we don’t need dev

A superintelligence, at a bare minimum, equates to an exponential increase in software development capacity for everyone to the point at which we don’t need devs and we very quickly don’t need anything that devs can automate. Even that is small minded frankly. The economy would not survive a super intelligence.

ethbr1 2y ago
I think that's giving a lot of credit to "super". Can the smartest developer you know build a project correctly without any requirements? There's a lot of sausage making behind what to build, how to integrate it with other things, who needs to be told what on which other teams, etc. Even pie in the sky breakthrough ASI isn't going to be able to do all of that, Day 0. And if we're using a tautology to define ASI as something that can do that on Day 0, then I'd point out that in the entire history of technology there hasn't been a single advancement that wasn't subsequently refined and improved. Except maybe fire.
- jncfhnb 2y ago
  If an AGI isn’t way smarter than the smartest person I’ve ever met, it’s definitely not a super intelligence. The very nature of a super intelligence is one that far exceeds human intelligence, including the the ability to rapidly design smarter AI.
  - ethbr1 2y ago
    Can the smartest person you know do everything all at once? If not, how much smarter do you think someone would need to be to do so? ASI ridiculousness starts from defining it as a do-anything machine. Everything has limits.
    - jncfhnb 2y ago
      If I could instantiate 20 clones of the smartest person I know to work 24/7 without distractions or fatigue that could write code at the speed of compute, it would utterly demolish any team of humans of any size. Like… I’ve had a TODO that I’ve expanded and worked on for a few years for a personal project. If I had a tireless bot of my own intelligence, it should only have taken about an hour. Human limitations are immense barriers.

ethbr1 2y ago

I think that's giving a lot of credit to "super". Can the smartest developer you know build a project correctly without any requirements? There's a lot of sausage making behind what to build, how to integrate it with other things, who needs to be told what on which other teams, etc. Even pie in the sky breakthrough ASI isn't going to be able to do all of that, Day 0. And if we're using a tautology to define ASI as something that can do that on Day 0, then I'd point out that in the entire history of technology there hasn't been a single advancement that wasn't subsequently refined and improved. Except maybe fire.

jncfhnb 2y ago
If an AGI isn’t way smarter than the smartest person I’ve ever met, it’s definitely not a super intelligence. The very nature of a super intelligence is one that far exceeds human intelligence, including the the ability to rapidly design smarter AI.
- ethbr1 2y ago
  Can the smartest person you know do everything all at once? If not, how much smarter do you think someone would need to be to do so? ASI ridiculousness starts from defining it as a do-anything machine. Everything has limits.
  - jncfhnb 2y ago
    If I could instantiate 20 clones of the smartest person I know to work 24/7 without distractions or fatigue that could write code at the speed of compute, it would utterly demolish any team of humans of any size. Like… I’ve had a TODO that I’ve expanded and worked on for a few years for a personal project. If I had a tireless bot of my own intelligence, it should only have taken about an hour. Human limitations are immense barriers.