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There’s a third one as well. AI will never get past its current autocomplete on steroids state and mainstream people will see through the facade at some point.

There’s a third one as well. AI will never get past its current autocomplete on steroids state and mainstream people will see through the facade at some point. AGI always was and always will be a pipe dream with the technology we currently have. All AI stocks come crashing down from fantasy amounts of money to what they’re actually worth as they did with every previous tech hype until people find a new thing to throw their money at.

boringg 2y ago
It would be the fusion nuclear reactor reactor of technology tantalizingly close but always a decade out.
dingnuts 2y ago
>mainstream people will see through the facade at some point do you read reddit? lots of people see through the facade now. the only people excited are shills
- s1artibartfast 2y ago
  My experience Reddit sentiment is inversely correlated with reality, and far too cynical. It's pretty simple to go into threads about breaking events several years later and see them loaded with confidently incorrect statements dominating the discourse. One of my favorite examples was the $34 IPO stock offer to moderators and redditors, which was almost universally bashed (currently trading over 170). https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1b0n2eo/reddit_is_offering_redditors_the_chance_to/ https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1b0n2eo/reddit_i...
  - nytesky 2y ago
    Stocks are somewhat irrational these days. Reddit just turned a profit after nearly 20 years in business. Its whole use maybe upended by AI and bots, so even if its profitable now hard to know if it will continue. I don’t know what drives it. I think part of it is that zero commission stock trades have many more small players making trades and stocks are priced on the margin.
bbor 2y ago
The stock market has crashes, yes, but I don't think that's proof that all previous tech was overhyped nonsense. I'm not just talking computers here, I'm talking steam, metal, agriculture. What proof do we have that we live at the end of history, and that no such shocking, world-changing developments might occur in our lifetimes? Certainly not debating that this isn't possible, ofc. As someone whose spent the past year+ working full time on the philosophy of this technology I think you're going against a pretty clear scientific consensus among AI experts, but perhaps you have your reasons. I think we already have AGI anyway, so I'm either a loon or a pedant ;)
- chrisldgk 2y ago
  Nonsense no, all technology has a use-case, including blockchains, VR and whatever’s been hyped in the last 20 years. I’m not even an opponent of AI in its current state, its and incredibly useful tool for a big number of things. Overhyped (and more specifically, overvalued) is a different question though. I think that most people working in the AI field have a pretty good monetary reason to say that AGI and ASI are just around the corner, but I have yet to see proof of any of it being achieved in any way whatsoever. Looking at everything we have so far, LLMs are still only token prediction and neural nets can only do what they’ve been trained to do. The datasets may be bigger, the computing power and efficiency may be increasing and we’re building abstractions that make longer chains of „thought“ possible, but at the end of the day this is still the same technology with the same restrictions that it’s always had and I don’t see that changing.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> AI will never get past its current autocomplete on steroids state I’m honestly betting on robotics. Tokenising words is intuitive. But the parameter space for tokenised physical inputs is both better understood and less solved for.

boringg 2y ago

It would be the fusion nuclear reactor reactor of technology tantalizingly close but always a decade out.

dingnuts 2y ago

>mainstream people will see through the facade at some point do you read reddit? lots of people see through the facade now. the only people excited are shills

s1artibartfast 2y ago
My experience Reddit sentiment is inversely correlated with reality, and far too cynical. It's pretty simple to go into threads about breaking events several years later and see them loaded with confidently incorrect statements dominating the discourse. One of my favorite examples was the $34 IPO stock offer to moderators and redditors, which was almost universally bashed (currently trading over 170). https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1b0n2eo/reddit_is_offering_redditors_the_chance_to/ https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1b0n2eo/reddit_i...
- nytesky 2y ago
  Stocks are somewhat irrational these days. Reddit just turned a profit after nearly 20 years in business. Its whole use maybe upended by AI and bots, so even if its profitable now hard to know if it will continue. I don’t know what drives it. I think part of it is that zero commission stock trades have many more small players making trades and stocks are priced on the margin.

bbor 2y ago

The stock market has crashes, yes, but I don't think that's proof that all previous tech was overhyped nonsense. I'm not just talking computers here, I'm talking steam, metal, agriculture. What proof do we have that we live at the end of history, and that no such shocking, world-changing developments might occur in our lifetimes? Certainly not debating that this isn't possible, ofc. As someone whose spent the past year+ working full time on the philosophy of this technology I think you're going against a pretty clear scientific consensus among AI experts, but perhaps you have your reasons. I think we already have AGI anyway, so I'm either a loon or a pedant ;)

chrisldgk 2y ago
Nonsense no, all technology has a use-case, including blockchains, VR and whatever’s been hyped in the last 20 years. I’m not even an opponent of AI in its current state, its and incredibly useful tool for a big number of things. Overhyped (and more specifically, overvalued) is a different question though. I think that most people working in the AI field have a pretty good monetary reason to say that AGI and ASI are just around the corner, but I have yet to see proof of any of it being achieved in any way whatsoever. Looking at everything we have so far, LLMs are still only token prediction and neural nets can only do what they’ve been trained to do. The datasets may be bigger, the computing power and efficiency may be increasing and we’re building abstractions that make longer chains of „thought“ possible, but at the end of the day this is still the same technology with the same restrictions that it’s always had and I don’t see that changing.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> AI will never get past its current autocomplete on steroids state I’m honestly betting on robotics. Tokenising words is intuitive. But the parameter space for tokenised physical inputs is both better understood and less solved for.