3 ms·
> In the lead up to the Iraq War in 2003, there was so much discussion in the media about how Iraq had weapons of mass destruction This is my favorite theory o
by sampo 2y ago
> In the lead up to the Iraq War in 2003, there was so much discussion in the media about how Iraq had weapons of mass destruction
This is my favorite theory of what happened:
Iraq perceived Iran, and internally Shiites and Kurds, as its real and threatening enemies. USA was perceived as being far away and weak. To keep their real enemies scared, Iraqis kept up the illusion of having a solid WMD program. Iraqis would hint at their WMDs when communicating with their neighbors.
From the point of Western intelligence, the intelligence picked up Iraqis talking about their WMDs when Iraqis didn't know being listened to, and when Western intelligence assumed that Iraqis had no reason to lie. While there was no physical evidence of the WMDs, this was perceived as a rather reliable intelligence. Why would Iraqis talk about their WMDs in secret, if they didn't even have any?
"Failing to understand the Iraqi leader’s mindset and the context of his decisions, the intelligence community assumed that Iraq’s ongoing denial and deception operations regarding his alleged WMD programs, despite periods of genuine cooperation were ipso facto confirmation that Iraq was hiding WMD caches and programs."
"It appears that the intelligence community never seriously considered the possibility that Baghdad was conducting its denial and deception operations to hide weakness."
https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/ASPJ/journals/Chronicles/tracey.pdf https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/ASPJ/journals/Ch...
- bhouston 2y agoThe Iraq War was pushed by a group calling themselves neoconservatives. They were itching for a war regardless of the WMDs. Its genesis was at least the mid 1990s per: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Clean_Break:_A_New_Strategy_for_Securing_the_Realm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Clean_Break:_A_New_Strategy_... And then this group got more power under Bush's term and 9/11 happened and they responded by pushing for the Iraq war and got it: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2003/03/origins-of-regime-change-in-iraq?lang=en https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2003/03/origins-of-re... https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iraq/what-neocons-got-wrong https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iraq/what-neocons-got-wrong The WMDs were a convenient cause belli for the masses, but it was not the motivator for the war. This is why no matter how much doubt was created about the WMDs before the war, and there was tons and tons, there was no stopping it.
- Dalewyn 2y ago>cause belli At the risk of being that guy, the term you're looking for is casus belli: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/casus%20belli https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/casus%20belli You've misspelled it at least twice so far, otherwise I wouldn't be bothering you about it.
- bhouston 2y agoThanks. I will try to do better. Another issue is that if I type it correctly it gets autocorrected to “cause hello”. So I have to go back and correct it every time.
- sixstringtheory 2y agoLive on the wild side. Turn off the autocorrect.