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> AGI will not eliminate economics and capitalism - we can have a big philosophical discussion here, but honestly, this is a bit over my current grasp of what i
by camillomiller 2y ago
> AGI will not eliminate economics and capitalism - we can have a big philosophical discussion here, but honestly, this is a bit over my current grasp of what is possible - so let’s limit this to something tangible.
And yet this is actually the most interesting point to discuss.
What happens if, as OpenAI seems to believe, million of AI agents will fill up the job market globally? What kind of disruption will inevitably happen to the dynamics of capitalistic society if you add a virtually free, or at least "ethically cheaper" workforce to the people that are only trained enough to do these kind of jobs?
There is no serious talks of UBI that are anhwhere near reaching feasibility, especially in a country like the US where anything like this would immediately be flagged as socialism or communism.
The only thing that seems realistic in the meantime is a quantum leap of inequalities, with AI being the perfect catalyst for the 0.1% to get to a never-before-seen global elite status, with everyone else from middle class down crushed and struggling to buy even groceries.
This is a direct consequence on the economy and could unfold very quickly. Every solution to the problem, on the other hand, could only works as a long-term set of policies that will constantly clash against ideological positions and collective action issues.
The only optimistic glimpse of hope I still have is that Sam Altman is fundamentally a salesman, and most of the claims we're hearing are just meant to pump and pump before an inevitable, massive dump.
In other words, give a global crisis ignited by the AI bubble pop, rather then whatever else could come if AI actually succeeded to the level its main proponents would like it to.
- tmelm 2y agoWhat you're describing is my main concern of how this AI development might turn out. If we get any sort of autonomous agent (conscious or not) that can replace human workers in massive scale, there is currently no government or other institution prepared or willing to make sure that the people left standing without jobs can afford to live. I'm really hopeful that all Sama's talk about ASI / AGI is just salesspeak, because if it isn't we are potentially in for a very dystopic few years. But then, it isn't in the top 0.1% interest to replace human workers and cause a hunger-fueled revolution either, I just don't have high hopes that they will care enough to try to prevent it.
- logicchains 2y agoTech workers will face the same fate as factory workers of the past: forced to get service jobs or pick up trades (or open their own business). Robotics is a long way behind AI, so jobs that require physical human dexterity/social skills will exist for longer than knowledge work.
- throw5959 2y agoSo tech workers will switch to working on robots? Why would that be any less high earning?
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- feznyng 2y agoI don’t think every tech worker will have the chance to lateral to robotics. Besides the number of opportunities, there’s a massive knowledge gap between building web apps and embedded software.
- connectsnk 2y agoWhat are the jobs that require social skills (except sales)?
- oytis 2y agoErosion of middle class has been happening for quite a while, and the heavens will not fall if it's accelerated. We might well end up in a future where labour has no leverage any more, and the society is divided into a small owner class and everyone else. But as long as most people are fed and have somewhere to live it's unlikely to cause any major unrest.
- camillomiller 2y agoSure, we’ll see…