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I think the enthusiast side of things is a negligible part of the market. That said, enthusiasts do help drive a lot of the improvements to the tech stack so i
by dagmx 2y ago
I think the enthusiast side of things is a negligible part of the market.
That said, enthusiasts do help drive a lot of the improvements to the tech stack so if they start using this, it’ll entrench NVIDIA even more.
- option 2y agotoday’s enthusiast, grad student, hacker is tomorrow’s startup founder, CEO, CTO or 10x contributor in large tech company
- Mistletoe 2y ago> tomorrow’s startup founder, CEO, CTO or 10x contributor in large tech company Do we need more of those? We need plumbers and people that know how to build houses. We are completely full on founders and executives.
- davrosthedalek 2y agoWe might not, but Nvidia would certainly like it.
- hatboat 2y agoIf they're already an "enthusiast, grad student, hacker", are they likely to choose the "plumbers and people that know how to build houses" career track? True passion for one's career is rare, despite the clichéd platitudes ecouraging otherwise. That's something we should encourage and invest in regardless of the field.
- computably 2y agoYeah, it's more about preempting competitors from attracting any ecosystem development than the revenue itself.
- VikingCoder 2y agoIf I were NVidia, I would be throwing everything I could at making entertainment experiences that need one of these to run... I mean, this is awfully close to being "Her" in a box, right?
- dagmx 2y agoI feel like a lot of people miss that Her was a dystopian future, not an ideal to hit. Also, it’s $3000. For that you could buy subscriptions to OpenAI etc and have the dystopian partner everywhere you go.
- tacticus 2y agothey don't miss that part. they just want to be the evil character.
- OhioMan2943 2y agoThe dystopian overton window has shifted, didn't you know, moral ambiguity is a win now? :) Tesla was right.
- VikingCoder 2y agoWe already live in dystopian hell and I'd like to have Scarlett Johansen whispering in my ear, thanks. Also, I don't particularly want my data to be processed by anyone else.
- croes 2y agoOpenAI doesn’t make any profit. So either it dies or prices go up. Not to mention the privacy aspect of your own machine and the freedom of choice which models to run
- blackoil 2y ago> So either it dies or prices go up. Or efficiency gains in hardware and software catchup making current price point profitable.
- qwertox 2y agoYou could have said the same about gamers buying expensive hardware in the 00's. It's what made Nvidia big.
- Cumpiler69 2y agoThere's a lot more gamers than people wanting to play with LLms at home.
- anonylizard 2y agoThere's a titanic market with people wanting some uncensored local LLM/image/video generation model. This market extremely overlaps with gamers today, but will grow exponentially every year.
- Cumpiler69 2y agoHow big is that market you claim? Local LLM image generation already exists out off the box on latest Samsung flagship phones and it's mostly a Gimmick that gets old pretty quickly. Hardly comparable to gaming in terms of market size and profitablity. Plus, YouTube and the Google images is already full of AI generated slop and people are already tired of it. "AI fatigue" amongst majority of general consumers is a documented thing. Gaming fatigues is not.
- madwolf 2y agoI think he implied AI generated porn. Perhaps also other kind of images that are at odds with morality and/or the law. I'm not sure but probably Samsung phones don't let you do that.
- TeMPOraL 2y ago> Gaming fatigues is not. It is. You may know it as the "I prefer to play board games (and feel smugly superior about it) because they're ${more social, require imagination, $whatever}" crowd.
- Karupan 2y agoI’m not so sure it’s negligible. My anecdotal experience is that since Apple Silicon chips were found to be “ok” enough to run inference with MLX, more non-technical people in my circle have asked me how they can run LLMs on their macs. Surely a smaller market than gamers or datacenters for sure.
- moralestapia 2y agoYes, but people already had their Macs for others reasons. No one goes to an Apple store thinking "I'll get a laptop to do AI inference".
- the_other 2y agoI'm currently wondering how likely it is I'll get into deeper LLM usage, and therefore how much Apple Silicon I need (because I'm addicted to macOS). So I'm some way closer to your steel man than you'd expect. But I'm probably a niche within a niche.
- JohnBooty 2y agoThey have, because until now Apple Silicon was the only practical way for many to work with larger models at home because they can be configured with 64-192GB of unified memory. Even the laptops can be configured with up to 128GB of unified memory. Performance is not amazing (roughly 4060 level, I think?) but in many ways it was the only game in town unless you were willing and able to build a multi-3090/4090 rig.
- moralestapia 2y agoI would bet that people running LLMs on their Macs, today, is <0.1% of their user base.
- sroussey 2y agoPeople buying Macs for LLMs—sure I agree. Since the current MacOS comes built in with small LLMs, that number might be closer to 50% not 0.1%.
- gr3ml1n 2y agoAMD thought the enthusiast side of things was a negligible side of the market.
- dagmx 2y agoThat’s not what I’m saying. I’m saying that the people buying this aren’t going to shift their bottom line in any kind of noticeable way. They’re already sold out of their money makers. This is just an entrenchment opportunity.
- epolanski 2y agoIf this is gonna be widely used by ML engineers, in biopharma, etc and they land 1000$ margins at half a million sales that's half a billion in revenue, with potential to grow.