4 ms·

How is the steelman not, a leak involving viruses with gain of function.

mikeyouse 2y ago
In the leak of existing virus scenario, you’d just need an existing virus kept secret from the entire worlds scientific and intelligence apparatus that accidentally escaped. In the gain of function one, you’d need that same virus as the backbone but also you’d need a lab to have discovered and used a new, unpublished and less effective insert (PRRAR) that accidentally created the worlds first artificial pandemic virus… again, all completely under the scientific and intelligence radar. The number of people who would need to be involved and kept quiet in the latter quickly reaches implausible numbers. I don’t consider it much of a steel man to create a huge conspiracy when a simple mistake would suffice.
- asdasdsddd 2y ago
  Are you telling me its crazy that a scientist accidentally caught an undocumented strain of the virus and spread it? Why would there need to be a cover up if they can't even find patient zero. And even if there was a cover up, both the US and China have massive incentives to cover it up.
  - defrost 2y ago
    They are saying that the lab leak scenario is extremely unlikely, yes. People have had lengthy moderated debates on this, with independant judges and $100K USD or personal money on the line .. and even when setup by confident pro lab leak debaters they've still failed to carry the argument as likely or probable - it's still possible but unlikely.
  - sofixa 2y ago
    > if there was a cover up, both the US and China have massive incentives to cover it up. China saving face, that one is clear (although unlikely to survive, remember that doctor who risked his career and life to expose that the Chinese government was downplaying Covid? Why do you think nobody would expose a cover-up?). What incentive was there for the US, or any other impacted country?
    - mikeyouse 2y ago
      Especially the Trump White House… they repeatedly exaggerated the available evidence to insinuate a lab leak… it would’ve been a huge political boon if they had any actual proof of malfeasance.

In the leak of existing virus scenario, you’d just need an existing virus kept secret from the entire worlds scientific and intelligence apparatus that accidentally escaped. In the gain of function one, you’d need that same virus as the backbone but also you’d need a lab to have discovered and used a new, unpublished and less effective insert (PRRAR) that accidentally created the worlds first artificial pandemic virus… again, all completely under the scientific and intelligence radar. The number of people who would need to be involved and kept quiet in the latter quickly reaches implausible numbers. I don’t consider it much of a steel man to create a huge conspiracy when a simple mistake would suffice.

asdasdsddd 2y ago
Are you telling me its crazy that a scientist accidentally caught an undocumented strain of the virus and spread it? Why would there need to be a cover up if they can't even find patient zero. And even if there was a cover up, both the US and China have massive incentives to cover it up.
- defrost 2y ago
  They are saying that the lab leak scenario is extremely unlikely, yes. People have had lengthy moderated debates on this, with independant judges and $100K USD or personal money on the line .. and even when setup by confident pro lab leak debaters they've still failed to carry the argument as likely or probable - it's still possible but unlikely.
- sofixa 2y ago
  > if there was a cover up, both the US and China have massive incentives to cover it up. China saving face, that one is clear (although unlikely to survive, remember that doctor who risked his career and life to expose that the Chinese government was downplaying Covid? Why do you think nobody would expose a cover-up?). What incentive was there for the US, or any other impacted country?
  - mikeyouse 2y ago
    Especially the Trump White House… they repeatedly exaggerated the available evidence to insinuate a lab leak… it would’ve been a huge political boon if they had any actual proof of malfeasance.