What makes you say that “whatever HN thinks” does not have any bearing on what the President-elect will or will not do—yet whatever Polymarket “is already showi

What makes you say that “whatever HN thinks” does not have any bearing on what the President-elect will or will not do—yet whatever Polymarket “is already showing” does? Unless there's something significant that I'm missing, the two seem to be roughly equivalent in terms of having any sort of direct insight into or influence on the future actions of our President-elect.