> If it's 11:55, you would usually mentally subtract and conclude: the meeting is in 5 minutes. But the most probable estimate given the available information

> If it's 11:55, you would usually mentally subtract and conclude: the meeting is in 5 minutes. But the most probable estimate given the available information is actually 4'30"! Admittedly I'm being a bit pedantic, but this isn't true. The expectation value might be 4'30", but the time is as likely to be 4'59" as 4'30"; assuming it's 4'30" will simply minimize your expected error.