4 ms·
Guesstimation of the numbers is not promising. The article mentions 1 to 3 million as targets, let's say 2 million as an asset at retirement. At 4% withdrawal,
by jostylr 2y ago
Guesstimation of the numbers is not promising. The article mentions 1 to 3 million as targets, let's say 2 million as an asset at retirement. At 4% withdrawal, that gives 80k a year. Median wage is about that.
There are about 4 million people in an age cohort below, say, 80 (80 * 4 million = 320 million). Let's say a generation is 20 years. So for Gen X to retire all at this comfortable level, that would be 4 million * 2 million * 20 = 160 trillion dollars in assets. This is staggered, but still.
The total US stock market value was recently about 55 trillion [1] and 110 trillion for global stock market [2]
These numbers seem a bit off from each other. Looking at the chart for the US growth, the value doubled from 1998 to 2014, then doubled again from 2014 to now. The later bit is presumably due to the massive injection of money (inflation) from the past 5 years which all seems supported by looking at the massive jump in value in 2020 in the chart.
And here is some analysis about GDP to total market value [3]. Also not a promising conclusion. Has market value at 60trillion at the moment and GDP at 30 trillion.
1: https://siblisresearch.com/data/us-stock-market-value/ https://siblisresearch.com/data/us-stock-market-value/
2: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-109-trillion-global-stock-market-in-one-chart/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-109-trillion-global-sto...
3: https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php