3 ms·

Viruses are evolving at somewhat constant rate, because constant rate of mutations is required to bypass immune system. Viruses must mutate or they will be eli

Viruses are evolving at somewhat constant rate, because constant rate of mutations is required to bypass immune system. Viruses must mutate or they will be eliminated by immune system of their hosts. So, we can multiple the rate of mutations by number of hosts to get average speed of evolution. By looking at genome of virus strain and knowing rate of mutations and number of hosts, we can calculate the time passed between them. By testing immune response for variants of the virus, we can find the person, who was infected first, AKA «patient zero», then look for a nearby cave and find the animal, which started the infection. So, by prediction, the infection in humans started at Sep-Oct 2019. First known patient in China was infected in Nov 2019: too late for the «patient zero». It means that infection, most likely, originated outside of China, where original bat virus was found. So, we will NEVER find a cave in China with pre-covid19 virus, because infection started outside of China. 0 The cave with pre-covid virus is in China, but infection started outside of China. WTF? Explosion at «Vector» lab, Koltsevo, Novosibirsk, Siberia, Russia was at Sep 16 2019, so we have match here. +1 Joint training of Chinese from Wuhan and Russian military police was started at Oct 11, 2019. They cannot bring infection from China to Russia because first case in China was in November, but Chinese police can be infected in Russia and return to China with infection in late October-November. +1 First report in media about sudden increase in cases of atypical pneumonia (start of infection) in Krasnoyark Krai, Siberia (700 cases per week) was at Oct 16, 2019. +1 So, we have 0 points in favor of animal origin, and 3 points in favor of lab origin.

__MatrixMan__ 2y ago
That really just looks like 0 points on either side to me. I find it quite plausible that it started outside of China, because why not, but if there was some kind of foul play involved I don't see why we should expect to be able to unravel the misinformation without having been personally involved. Basically none of the reporting on it was accurate. I had it two weeks prior to the first reported case in my state and was told that "everybody who needs a test can get one" and was unable to get a test because I wasn't sick enough to justify it (which is fine, but if that's how your surveillance works then your data is useless). It's a big cloud of lies and I just don't see the utility of peering into it and trying to assign blame when that same energy could be put towards being prepared for next time.

__MatrixMan__ 2y ago

That really just looks like 0 points on either side to me. I find it quite plausible that it started outside of China, because why not, but if there was some kind of foul play involved I don't see why we should expect to be able to unravel the misinformation without having been personally involved. Basically none of the reporting on it was accurate. I had it two weeks prior to the first reported case in my state and was told that "everybody who needs a test can get one" and was unable to get a test because I wasn't sick enough to justify it (which is fine, but if that's how your surveillance works then your data is useless). It's a big cloud of lies and I just don't see the utility of peering into it and trying to assign blame when that same energy could be put towards being prepared for next time.