3 ms·
Or he knows more than he’s letting on. Either way, the AI bubble is going to start popping if he can’t demonstrate meaningful progress - into the realm of maki
by karlgkk 2y ago
Or he knows more than he’s letting on.
Either way, the AI bubble is going to start popping if he can’t demonstrate meaningful progress - into the realm of making decisions and taking actions - within the next year.
Frankly, I think he’s exaggerating.
- benatkin 2y agoPassing difficult tests is no small feat... https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1hj2tvj/its_happening_right_now/ https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1hj2tvj/its_ha...
- minimaxir 2y agoPassing tests only by spending thousands in compute is good for research but not good for a recently-restructured-for-profit business.
- ggm 2y agoAlmost anything said from here on in will be an appeal to authority, but putting the logical fallacy issue to one side, that's a pretty lame chart. The y axis is highly contestable and essentially undefined. Reddit is not your friend in the citation stakes.
- benatkin 2y agoDismissive are we? Quibbling about a clear hockey stick growth curve. These comments: > Now do the same for other evaluations, remove the o family, nudge the time scale a bit, and watch the same curve pop out. > This is called eval saturation, not tech singularity. ARC-2 is already in production btw. A reply: > You act like that isnt significant, people just hand wave "eval saturation" > The fact that we keep having to make new benchmarks because ai keep beating the ones we have is extremely significant. Agree with this. The pace has been mind boggling.
- daveguy 2y agoIf you make the y axis "AGI points" you can make the graph look like whatever you want depending on how you define "AGI points". The pace has been impressive, but until hallucinations are addressed the more faith and capital you put behind an AI agent, the more you risk losing.