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Chinas total population isn’t really that relevant for what their economy will end up looking like. China is essentially a handful of moderately wealthy coastal

by audunw 2y ago

Chinas total population isn’t really that relevant for what their economy will end up looking like. China is essentially a handful of moderately wealthy coastal areas (perhaps comparable to USA in population but still far behind in GDP/capita) and a huge inland area of very poor people. There’s not much reason to think all those 100s of millions of people will become as wealthy as the average American or European any time soon. It’s not just demographics. Geography is a huge challenge as well. I don’t know if China will “fall back”. But stagnation seems very likely. If they backslide it’ll probably be due to some political turmoil, like what happened in when the Soviet Union collapsed. Nearly impossible to predict. If you look at what’s happening with regular people inside China, there does seem to be a sense that things are getting worse, not better. I have friends with family in China that said exactly that this New Year’s Eve.. There’s a lot of incidents with people driving their cars into crowds of people as a revenge against society, and other similarly worrying signs. Many factories are being moved out of China. It might not be enough to show up on statistics yet, but it’s a process that has undeniably started and will probably accelerate. China has a huge bet on batteries, EVs and solar panels to make up for what they’re loosing. That’s going really well right now. But I don’t think it’s a winning strategy long term. USA and EU seems to be wanting to protect their industries and on-shore or near-shore a lot of that stuff. The manufacturing of those things are highly automated. Eventually most of the materials will come from local recycling. China could get a very strong and balanced economy if they had a good strategy based on self sustainable local consumption, rather can just export. But I just don’t see that they’re taking that seriously. Most of the policies are still geared towards supporting/subsidising higher exports.

mahirsaid 2y ago
This will balance its self out. One thing they have we don't is monopoly control they allow you to have monopoly if it serves well. we have that but we turn on monopolies when they get too big, they were already too big when they attached the name monopoly to the big players. i suspect if we look at data going back thirty years you will see the gap far bigger and now the gap is rather widening or growing with each end of the gap getting thicker. what i mean is, the poor were really really poor and now we can look at data and say that they are just poor with avenues of fixing that issues. They do have the economies within their country to fix poverty as its far more fruitful versus the U.S.. you either work in fast food or have a masters degree making $70,000. this isn't great considering the U.S. is a rich country

by audunw 2y ago

mahirsaid 2y ago

This will balance its self out. One thing they have we don't is monopoly control they allow you to have monopoly if it serves well. we have that but we turn on monopolies when they get too big, they were already too big when they attached the name monopoly to the big players. i suspect if we look at data going back thirty years you will see the gap far bigger and now the gap is rather widening or growing with each end of the gap getting thicker. what i mean is, the poor were really really poor and now we can look at data and say that they are just poor with avenues of fixing that issues. They do have the economies within their country to fix poverty as its far more fruitful versus the U.S.. you either work in fast food or have a masters degree making $70,000. this isn't great considering the U.S. is a rich country