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And unfortunately for the West, manufacturing capacity translates to military capability in any prolonged conflict (which is why industrial policy and tariffs i

And unfortunately for the West, manufacturing capacity translates to military capability in any prolonged conflict (which is why industrial policy and tariffs in dual use / strategic industries seem like the way to go)

treebeard901 2y ago
Any non-nuclear prolonged conventional war will see U.S. ammo and shipbuilding far surpassed by Chinas manufacturing base and it isnt even close. The U.S. plan was to cut off oil shipments and food if this happened. Now China can likely have a Navy capable of guarding oil shipments from the Middle East all the way to Chinese ports. Everyone in the U.S. just assumes that they did it in 1940 so they can just do it again in 2040. It was the manufacturing capacity that won in the 1940s in the first place!
- thruway516 2y ago
  You might be right. But a major 21st century conflict is likely going to be very different from past conflicts and we still don't know what that will look like. We're getting a few glimpses from the Ukraine conflict - drones, social media - but who knows what else. Having a numerical advantage in conventional arms might be the equivalent of having superior cavalry at the onset of WWI
  - bigthymer 2y ago
    > We're getting a few glimpses from the Ukraine conflict - drones, social media - but who knows what else Actually, from the assessments that I have read, while new technology and drones have made a meaningful splash, it seems like manpower and the ability to produce large quantities of artillery shells have been the true determiner of the tides. The lesson learned thus far is that considerations from the past still matter.
    - thruway516 2y ago
      Well I did say a glimpse. Manpower, food, supply chains and all the basics will never not matter. It's a question of what could be a deciding advantage that did not exist before, like mechanized divisions in WWI and air power subsequently. Russia-Ukraine is still a very conventional land war but it won't surprise me if a future China-US conflict was fought (and maybe even won or lost) virtually as well as conventionally.
- kelipso 2y ago
  In that scenario, they would use Russia rather than Middle East for oil shipments in the first place.
  - audunw 2y ago
    How far in the future are we talking about? Russia doesn’t have the capacity to transport that much oil by land. It’d take years to build that infrastructure and it’s not even clear that China is at all interested in supporting huge investments that make them that dependent on Russia. Keep in mind that China and Russia are not fundamentally friends.. Russia is still holding territory that belonged to China, and that China wouldn’t hesitate to take back if they saw an opportunity. Unless they can transport by sea by the arctic route year round (could eventually be enabled by climate change), the only way is to go south. Which is a far more vulnerable route than oil from the Middle East.
TrapLord_Rhodo 2y ago
you can't look at "Manufacturing" and translate that to military capability. what you manufacture is very important. Nothing china has can compete with the airpower capabilities of the west. A single F35 has the capabilities no amount of chinese planes can match.
- slaw 2y ago
  J-20 vs F-35 https://simpleflying.com/china-j-20-vs-us-f-35-evaluating-modern-stealth-fighters/ https://simpleflying.com/china-j-20-vs-us-f-35-evaluating-mo...
  - TrapLord_Rhodo 2y ago
    so a very fast untested fighter with very limited armament vs. something that can't be detected by any known radar and has flown thousands of combat missions, with multiple different version, including one with VTOL and can do air to air, surface to air, and even nukes? It wouldn't be close at all. The j20's wouldn't be able to detect the f35 and the F35 can hit it with an air to air missle 350 miles out. From the Article you linked: ""“The J-20, in my estimation, would be dead long before it had the ability to maneuver against either the F-22 or the F-35. It’s got enough spikes on it to where the radar returns on it are likely to be much more significant, which means that the F-22 and the F-35 can see it a lot farther away.”
- bgnn 2y ago
  While this is true the US military production is mostly in a sad state, especially Naval production as discussed before: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41662831 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41662831 especially this article https://www.americanmanufacturing.org/blog/chinas-shipbuilding-capacity-is-232-times-greater-than-that-of-the-united-states/ https://www.americanmanufacturing.org/blog/chinas-shipbuildi...

treebeard901 2y ago

Any non-nuclear prolonged conventional war will see U.S. ammo and shipbuilding far surpassed by Chinas manufacturing base and it isnt even close. The U.S. plan was to cut off oil shipments and food if this happened. Now China can likely have a Navy capable of guarding oil shipments from the Middle East all the way to Chinese ports. Everyone in the U.S. just assumes that they did it in 1940 so they can just do it again in 2040. It was the manufacturing capacity that won in the 1940s in the first place!

thruway516 2y ago
You might be right. But a major 21st century conflict is likely going to be very different from past conflicts and we still don't know what that will look like. We're getting a few glimpses from the Ukraine conflict - drones, social media - but who knows what else. Having a numerical advantage in conventional arms might be the equivalent of having superior cavalry at the onset of WWI
- bigthymer 2y ago
  > We're getting a few glimpses from the Ukraine conflict - drones, social media - but who knows what else Actually, from the assessments that I have read, while new technology and drones have made a meaningful splash, it seems like manpower and the ability to produce large quantities of artillery shells have been the true determiner of the tides. The lesson learned thus far is that considerations from the past still matter.
  - thruway516 2y ago
    Well I did say a glimpse. Manpower, food, supply chains and all the basics will never not matter. It's a question of what could be a deciding advantage that did not exist before, like mechanized divisions in WWI and air power subsequently. Russia-Ukraine is still a very conventional land war but it won't surprise me if a future China-US conflict was fought (and maybe even won or lost) virtually as well as conventionally.
kelipso 2y ago
In that scenario, they would use Russia rather than Middle East for oil shipments in the first place.
- audunw 2y ago
  How far in the future are we talking about? Russia doesn’t have the capacity to transport that much oil by land. It’d take years to build that infrastructure and it’s not even clear that China is at all interested in supporting huge investments that make them that dependent on Russia. Keep in mind that China and Russia are not fundamentally friends.. Russia is still holding territory that belonged to China, and that China wouldn’t hesitate to take back if they saw an opportunity. Unless they can transport by sea by the arctic route year round (could eventually be enabled by climate change), the only way is to go south. Which is a far more vulnerable route than oil from the Middle East.

TrapLord_Rhodo 2y ago

you can't look at "Manufacturing" and translate that to military capability. what you manufacture is very important. Nothing china has can compete with the airpower capabilities of the west. A single F35 has the capabilities no amount of chinese planes can match.

slaw 2y ago
J-20 vs F-35 https://simpleflying.com/china-j-20-vs-us-f-35-evaluating-modern-stealth-fighters/ https://simpleflying.com/china-j-20-vs-us-f-35-evaluating-mo...
- TrapLord_Rhodo 2y ago
  so a very fast untested fighter with very limited armament vs. something that can't be detected by any known radar and has flown thousands of combat missions, with multiple different version, including one with VTOL and can do air to air, surface to air, and even nukes? It wouldn't be close at all. The j20's wouldn't be able to detect the f35 and the F35 can hit it with an air to air missle 350 miles out. From the Article you linked: ""“The J-20, in my estimation, would be dead long before it had the ability to maneuver against either the F-22 or the F-35. It’s got enough spikes on it to where the radar returns on it are likely to be much more significant, which means that the F-22 and the F-35 can see it a lot farther away.”
bgnn 2y ago
While this is true the US military production is mostly in a sad state, especially Naval production as discussed before: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41662831 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41662831 especially this article https://www.americanmanufacturing.org/blog/chinas-shipbuilding-capacity-is-232-times-greater-than-that-of-the-united-states/ https://www.americanmanufacturing.org/blog/chinas-shipbuildi...