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Yeah this came as a big shock to me as I was hearing acquaintances say their solar and battery install would payback in 3-4 years compared to 15-20 years timeli

Yeah this came as a big shock to me as I was hearing acquaintances say their solar and battery install would payback in 3-4 years compared to 15-20 years timeline I read on hackernews etc. Turns out the cost of equipment is so cheap now that in countries with cheaper labour and other costs they can get a similar system with install at 1/3 the price.

bruce511 2y ago
I'm currently getting 16% return on capital invested, just with domestic savings. Thats an annualized return over all capital spent, including panels, equipment and labor. Thats more or less what I expected. So yes, your locality matters. As does your current consumption, cost of electricity, and so on. Prices are also falling quite a bit as time passes.
- energy123 2y ago
  The two things that get worse over time are labor costs and net metering arrangements. Labor costs either track or exceed inflation, and net metering arrangements get less lucrative as the grid becomes more solar heavy, like what happened in California last year. But relying on net metering for ROI is a pre-2024 thing. Batteries are getting so cheap.
  - pfdietz 2y ago
    Net metering changed when it become economically unsupportable as PV adoption scaled. The same thing will happen with grid-connected residential solar + batteries. Rates will be changed to be based on capacity rather than consumption. There might, for example, be a charge based on your maximum usage during a period rather than total usage.
    - bruce511 2y ago
      Yes, the formula for grid connectivity will need to change. In some places it already has. Grid electricity incurs two basic costs. Generation and Distribution. Traditionally electricity was charged purely on consumption (ie Generation). This made sense when everyone bought all their electricity. It makes less sense when I benefit from being connected all the time, but only actually purchase electricity when my batteries run flat. It's like being able to make endless backups for free, but only paying to restore. As with many other things I makes sense to align billing to cost to value. Thus the cost of "connectedness to the grid" needs to separate from the cost of "electricity consumed".
      - xbmcuser 2y ago
        In my opinion electricity grid just like other infrastructure like road needs to be owned and maintained by government. 2-5 year contracts can be given out for maintenance and upgrades with performance and reliability targets to induce competition. Then connection to the grid charges can be charged to everyone according to the type of power connection and bandwidth they require. If this is not done as prices for solar and batteries keep dropping people will defect from the grid and the people left on the grid will need to pay more and more resulting more defections from the grid.
marssaxman 2y ago
How long ago did you hear that it would take 15-20 years to break even? When I had solar installed on my house in Seattle back in 2013, they estimated it would take seven years, but it was actually closer to six. Equipment is only cheaper and better now.
- xbmcuser 2y ago
  Solar + battery not just solar
  - marssaxman 2y ago
    Ah! Yes, that would be a whole different equation.
- zonkerdonker 2y ago
  I'm looking at getting a few panels installed as well, as my roof needs re-shingled and the bundled price seems like a good deal. What company did you go with? Are they still operating? Ive heard thats an issue with some of the smaller/local installers
  - marssaxman 2y ago
    I used A&R Solar (https://www.a-rsolar.com/ https://www.a-rsolar.com/), and had such a good experience I recommended them to all of my friends. The company seemed to have some growth issues - friends who hired them two years later were less impressed - but that was a good while ago now and they're certainly still in business.
    - zonkerdonker 2y ago
      Awesome! Thanks for the lead, I'll check em out. Seems likely to be a rush next year to reap the federal incentives before the upcoming admiistration likely guts them
- blitzar 2y ago
  Equipment is cheaper and better now + the price of electricity / gas is higher.
defrost 2y ago
Here in Australia in a semi rural non big city town there are a lot of professional grade DIY installs. The area has many FiFo (Fly In Fly Out) mine site workers and farmers all of whom are capable of fixing panels to roofs and racking batteries .. the wiring and looms are either "done by a mate" or done from a sketch on the back of envelope, or reading the sheet of instructions that come with an order. The important part, safety, comes at the end when one of the few working town electricians (or an "off duty" mine electrician) checks the wiring for safety and compliance and signs off on the work for a fee. Like many things the total cost is sweat equity + mail order prices + professional inspection and sign off (for insurance and peace of mind).
- Gibbon1 2y ago
  Stupid thing I didn't do when I was in my 20's was take the contractors license exam. Back then you took a few classes, took the exam and you had a license. Now you need to work several thousand hours under someone with a license and then you're only allowed to do that type of work. And then California wonders why construction is sooooo expensive.
  - defrost 2y ago
    Smart thing I did in my teens and early 20's was to work part time at mine sites every vacation break. I got a good lump sum saved up by the end of university and I was ticketed with experience on bobcats, haulpaks, loaders, mini-cranes, heavy rigid trucks, etc. along with trades assistant experience working for electricians, gas fitters, fitter and turners, riggers, plumbers, radio technicians, belt splicers, etc. That meant that while I wasn't a qualified electrician I did know how and what they did and had done most of the work myself under supervision. I veered into Engineering (Trad.) then Mathematics, then Geophysics .. but I was well set up to go into trades had I wanted to .. more importantly I could do a full gas fitting layout for a glass blowing studio (isolation valves, pressure valves, furnace, annealing oven, glory hole, leakproof joins, etc) just not legally connect it .. for insurance and peace of mind I get an actual working tradie with insurance to inspect and signoff on the connection to a large rented LPG tank. It's a very Weddings, Parties, Anything * kind of state (ie. many people here are comfortable taking on many types of work; typical for large area low population places). * Any song you want Playing requests now on the bandstand El Clash combo Paid fifteen dollars a day Weddings, parties, anything And Bongo Jazz a speciality

bruce511 2y ago

I'm currently getting 16% return on capital invested, just with domestic savings. Thats an annualized return over all capital spent, including panels, equipment and labor. Thats more or less what I expected. So yes, your locality matters. As does your current consumption, cost of electricity, and so on. Prices are also falling quite a bit as time passes.

energy123 2y ago
The two things that get worse over time are labor costs and net metering arrangements. Labor costs either track or exceed inflation, and net metering arrangements get less lucrative as the grid becomes more solar heavy, like what happened in California last year. But relying on net metering for ROI is a pre-2024 thing. Batteries are getting so cheap.
- pfdietz 2y ago
  Net metering changed when it become economically unsupportable as PV adoption scaled. The same thing will happen with grid-connected residential solar + batteries. Rates will be changed to be based on capacity rather than consumption. There might, for example, be a charge based on your maximum usage during a period rather than total usage.
  - bruce511 2y ago
    Yes, the formula for grid connectivity will need to change. In some places it already has. Grid electricity incurs two basic costs. Generation and Distribution. Traditionally electricity was charged purely on consumption (ie Generation). This made sense when everyone bought all their electricity. It makes less sense when I benefit from being connected all the time, but only actually purchase electricity when my batteries run flat. It's like being able to make endless backups for free, but only paying to restore. As with many other things I makes sense to align billing to cost to value. Thus the cost of "connectedness to the grid" needs to separate from the cost of "electricity consumed".
    - xbmcuser 2y ago
      In my opinion electricity grid just like other infrastructure like road needs to be owned and maintained by government. 2-5 year contracts can be given out for maintenance and upgrades with performance and reliability targets to induce competition. Then connection to the grid charges can be charged to everyone according to the type of power connection and bandwidth they require. If this is not done as prices for solar and batteries keep dropping people will defect from the grid and the people left on the grid will need to pay more and more resulting more defections from the grid.

marssaxman 2y ago

How long ago did you hear that it would take 15-20 years to break even? When I had solar installed on my house in Seattle back in 2013, they estimated it would take seven years, but it was actually closer to six. Equipment is only cheaper and better now.

xbmcuser 2y ago
Solar + battery not just solar
- marssaxman 2y ago
  Ah! Yes, that would be a whole different equation.
zonkerdonker 2y ago
I'm looking at getting a few panels installed as well, as my roof needs re-shingled and the bundled price seems like a good deal. What company did you go with? Are they still operating? Ive heard thats an issue with some of the smaller/local installers
- marssaxman 2y ago
  I used A&R Solar (https://www.a-rsolar.com/ https://www.a-rsolar.com/), and had such a good experience I recommended them to all of my friends. The company seemed to have some growth issues - friends who hired them two years later were less impressed - but that was a good while ago now and they're certainly still in business.
  - zonkerdonker 2y ago
    Awesome! Thanks for the lead, I'll check em out. Seems likely to be a rush next year to reap the federal incentives before the upcoming admiistration likely guts them
blitzar 2y ago
Equipment is cheaper and better now + the price of electricity / gas is higher.

defrost 2y ago

Here in Australia in a semi rural non big city town there are a lot of professional grade DIY installs. The area has many FiFo (Fly In Fly Out) mine site workers and farmers all of whom are capable of fixing panels to roofs and racking batteries .. the wiring and looms are either "done by a mate" or done from a sketch on the back of envelope, or reading the sheet of instructions that come with an order. The important part, safety, comes at the end when one of the few working town electricians (or an "off duty" mine electrician) checks the wiring for safety and compliance and signs off on the work for a fee. Like many things the total cost is sweat equity + mail order prices + professional inspection and sign off (for insurance and peace of mind).

Gibbon1 2y ago
Stupid thing I didn't do when I was in my 20's was take the contractors license exam. Back then you took a few classes, took the exam and you had a license. Now you need to work several thousand hours under someone with a license and then you're only allowed to do that type of work. And then California wonders why construction is sooooo expensive.
- defrost 2y ago
  Smart thing I did in my teens and early 20's was to work part time at mine sites every vacation break. I got a good lump sum saved up by the end of university and I was ticketed with experience on bobcats, haulpaks, loaders, mini-cranes, heavy rigid trucks, etc. along with trades assistant experience working for electricians, gas fitters, fitter and turners, riggers, plumbers, radio technicians, belt splicers, etc. That meant that while I wasn't a qualified electrician I did know how and what they did and had done most of the work myself under supervision. I veered into Engineering (Trad.) then Mathematics, then Geophysics .. but I was well set up to go into trades had I wanted to .. more importantly I could do a full gas fitting layout for a glass blowing studio (isolation valves, pressure valves, furnace, annealing oven, glory hole, leakproof joins, etc) just not legally connect it .. for insurance and peace of mind I get an actual working tradie with insurance to inspect and signoff on the connection to a large rented LPG tank. It's a very Weddings, Parties, Anything * kind of state (ie. many people here are comfortable taking on many types of work; typical for large area low population places). * Any song you want Playing requests now on the bandstand El Clash combo Paid fifteen dollars a day Weddings, parties, anything And Bongo Jazz a speciality