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This was predictable. It's just too ostentatious to be a big seller. Elon himself predicted it; even before launch he was saying: "To be frank, there is always

This was predictable. It's just too ostentatious to be a big seller. Elon himself predicted it; even before launch he was saying: "To be frank, there is always some chance that Cybertruck will flop, because it is so unlike anything else. I don’t care. I love it so much even if others don’t." He never said anything similar about Tesla's other products. https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1415733231589097472 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1415733231589097472 At every earnings call including the most recent one Tesla keeps saying "Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025." Note the plural on "affordable models". So that is what will make or break their sales growth for the next few years. Progress on FSD may also contribute if it continues to accelerate the way it did in the last 6 months with v12 and v13. Cybertruck will not be material.

akmarinov 2y ago
Tesla usually announces models and ships them years later, so there’s no history to back the start of production of new models in the first half of 2025, regardless of what they say
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  That's not true. The Model 3 refresh was not announced until after it shipped. Tesla announces non-competitive new models way in advance. The cybercab and cybervan announcements do not compete with existing models and thus could be announced years in advance. However, Tesla is well aware of the Osbourne phenomenon. Announcing a $25,000 car would destroy sales of 3, so they haven't done so.
  - akmarinov 2y ago
    The Model 3 refresh isn’t a new car though And they announced the Cybercab at $25k, potentially eating into the Model 3 They’re not just dropping a $25k Model 2 this year The Model 3 refresh and the upcoming Model Y refresh got leaked a year out, there’s just no leaks for a Model 2 whatsoever.
- modeless 2y ago
  This is true. But it would make sense to do it differently this time. On the other hand I would expect more leaks if they really were close to production. They did keep the Cybercab under wraps pretty well even after making 20 of them. But it's not going into volume production soon.
rok3 2y ago
> I love it so much even if others don’t. Is there any evidence he's ever driven (or even ridden in) a production unit?

akmarinov 2y ago

Tesla usually announces models and ships them years later, so there’s no history to back the start of production of new models in the first half of 2025, regardless of what they say

bryanlarsen 2y ago
That's not true. The Model 3 refresh was not announced until after it shipped. Tesla announces non-competitive new models way in advance. The cybercab and cybervan announcements do not compete with existing models and thus could be announced years in advance. However, Tesla is well aware of the Osbourne phenomenon. Announcing a $25,000 car would destroy sales of 3, so they haven't done so.
- akmarinov 2y ago
  The Model 3 refresh isn’t a new car though And they announced the Cybercab at $25k, potentially eating into the Model 3 They’re not just dropping a $25k Model 2 this year The Model 3 refresh and the upcoming Model Y refresh got leaked a year out, there’s just no leaks for a Model 2 whatsoever.
modeless 2y ago
This is true. But it would make sense to do it differently this time. On the other hand I would expect more leaks if they really were close to production. They did keep the Cybercab under wraps pretty well even after making 20 of them. But it's not going into volume production soon.

rok3 2y ago

> I love it so much even if others don’t. Is there any evidence he's ever driven (or even ridden in) a production unit?