3 ms·

My friend said it best: "EVs are great second cars" I think we're finally hitting the saturation point of EVs as the market who adopted them is realizing their

by mbesto 2y ago

My friend said it best: "EVs are great second cars" I think we're finally hitting the saturation point of EVs as the market who adopted them is realizing their flaws as a primary vehicle: - Inadequate infrastructure (both localized "my apartment doesn't have a charging station" and more globally "I stopped at a supercharger station and it was full of people so my charge went from 100 kW to 15 kW and took 45 min to charge") - Lack of experience and knowledge around regenerative breaking - Poor battery performance in cold/extreme heat - Misunderstood maintenance changes. Instead of oil changes/filters/etc, your tires wear 20~30% faster and you have to replace the battery every 10 years. The reality is it's not me that's saying this, the used car market is saying this. EVs simply don't hold their value on the used market. https://www.iseecars.com/cars-that-hold-their-value-study https://www.iseecars.com/cars-that-hold-their-value-study FYI - I'm a proud owner of a Rivian after selling my Tesla.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> reality is it's not me that's saying this, the used car market is saying this. EVs simply don't hold their value on the used market Those data defy simple explanation. The car with the highest 5-year depreciation is the Maserati Quattroporte (64.5%). After that the BMW 7 Series (61.8%) and Maserati Ghibli (61.3%). So for starters, you have to control for (a) sports and (b) expensive cars. Niches EVs have targeted. The Model 3 is shown to have a 42.9% 5-year depreciation, around the category average for SUVs.
- mbesto 2y ago
  > you have to control for (a) sports and (b) expensive cars. Fair. But the opposite is also true...Porsche 911 and 718 are both 9% and 17% depreciation values respectively, which bring the overall averages down too. Not to mention the Model S is #19 in worst depreciation. So there are a lot of factors at play other than simply saying "just eliminate all sports/expensive cars" > The Model 3 is shown to have a 42.9% 5-year depreciation, around the category average for SUVs. You first made a point about comparing apples to oranges (which was fair) and then compared apples to oranges to make another same point. /headscratch You would have to compare a Model 3 to a sedan, not an SUV. Point is, if EVs are as valuable as people make them out to be and the demand is so high for them, then why isn't the used car market telling us that?
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > You would have to compare a Model 3 to a sedan, not an SUV My point is that EV has a depreciation rate comparable to that of a popular automobile category. We wouldn't conclude adversely against SUVs for that number; we similarly shouldn't for the Model 3. > if EVs are as valuable as people make them out to be and the demand is so high for them The drumbeat of the last year has been about flagging demand for EVs. Who is saying demand is so high?
    - mbesto 2y ago
      > Who is saying demand is so high? https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/03/cars/musk-tesla-cars-value-ev-prices/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/03/cars/musk-tesla-cars-value-ev...
  - floxy 2y ago
    I think the $7,500 federal tax credit screws up most people's depreciation calculation. Or at least not keeping that in mind skews people's perception. For example, I purchased a Nissan Leaf years ago, when it was still eligible for the full $7,500 credit. The MSRP was ~$28k. But I only paid ~$21.5k. So it seems like it suffered 23% depreciation the day I drove it off the lot, since no one would pay more than that for a used one, otherwise, they can just buy it brand new for $21.5k themselves. But that 23% number doesn't affect the owner of the car.
bearjaws 2y ago
It does not go down to 15kw. At old Tesla stations it went from 150kw to 75kw. Any v3 station (first introduced in 2019!) will stay at 150kw to 250kw. I haven't seen a v2 station in 2 years now. You also don't need a battery based on its age, you need it based on its mileage. Some people like my wife only drive 8k miles a year, which is more around 20 years...
- mbesto 2y ago
  > It does not go to 15kw It goes to whatever the software tells it to, which is based on the following factors: - What percentage the battery is at when it starts charging - Environmental conditions (cold/heat) - How many other cars are being charged (IIRC most super charger stations don't supply the max amps * the number of ports - they assume some cars will be throttled) A v3 can get up to 250 kW but only under optimal conditions. The more EVs on the road, the less optimal it becomes. > You also don't need a battery based on its age, you need it based on its mileage. Some people like my wife only drive 8k miles a year, which is more around 20 years True, but for reference, "Tesla also provides an 8-year warranty (or up to 150,000 miles, depending on the model) for its batteries, guaranteeing at least 70% capacity retention during this period". The average consumer doesn't understand that their car gets less range over time after use.
  - bdangubic 2y ago
    The average consumer doesn't understand that their car gets less range over time after use. right, the average consumer never owned anything which runs on a battery before and those rare folk that might have owned like a cellphone surely think that cars have MAGIC batteries which unlike every other battery they have ever owned is going to be rock n roll for decades
    - mbesto 2y ago
      Cellphones didn't previously run on gasoline.
      - 2y ago
bryanlarsen 2y ago
> My friend said it best: "EVs are great second cars" I disagree. We've had an EV for ~5 years now, and have put about 10x as many miles on it as we have on our gasoline vehicle. The gasoline vehicle is the second car, and the EV is what we prefer for road trips. > your tires wear 20~30% faster Not in my experience, I'm getting 70k from a set of tires, which is comparable to previous cars. Just because a car can accelerate quickly doesn't mean you should. > and you have to replace the battery every 10 years. No you don't. Tesla's and BMW i3's from ~2013 are testing at around 85% battery capacity. https://www.wired.com/story/electric-cars-could-last-much-longer-than-most-think/ https://www.wired.com/story/electric-cars-could-last-much-lo... > The reality is it's not me that's saying this, the used car market is saying this. Absolutely. You can buy a 3 year old Tesla Model 3 for $20k, cheaper than a comparable gasoline car, and seems like an excellent deal. If it wasn't for the Musk stigma we'd likely be purchasing one to replace our gasoline car.
- mbesto 2y ago
  > Not in my experience Anecdotal. Just do a few google searches and the data says 20~30%. Torque, weight, etc. all conclude this. Just go into a discount tire and the guys will tell you this is true. > Just because a car can accelerate quickly doesn't mean you should. You've reinforced my point - which is most people don't know how to drive EVs with maintenance in mind. > NTesla's and BMW i3's from ~2013 are testing at around 85% battery capacity. So then why not warrant against it if this is so certain? Also, ICE gas tanks don't get smaller over time.
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    > So then why not warrant against it if this is so certain? They do. 8 years / 100,000 mile warranties suggest that ~3 sigma lifetime is at that level. IOW, Tesla likely believes that >99.5% of all cars will not need a warranty battery replacement by that point. To hit that level, the average car needs to do a lot better than that. > Also, ICE gas tanks don't get smaller over time. If measured in miles/tank, they definitely do. The gas mileage a 10 year old car gets is worse than the same car when it was new.
  - 2y ago
seattle_spring 2y ago
> you have to replace the battery every 10 years That's like saying you have to replace a dishwasher every year because it only comes with a 1-year warranty.
r00fus 2y ago
We're a 2 EV family and have had no problems whatsoever. We do have a 3rd gas vehicle (older minivan) but that's mostly because when we bought the 2nd EV there were no reasonably priced 3-row vehicles (No, the Model X and Model Y don't count as a real 3 row), and we never got around to selling it. Yeah, EVs aren't yet at gas car parity but it's close enough for many people. We really don't do much interstate traveling and live in a sunny state.
holoduke 2y ago
Our diesel truck is our second vehicle we use when we go on long trips or when doing a hike in the forrest. Our model X is used daily. Perfect car. Cheap and reliable. Only 15 bucks for 300 miles.

by mbesto 2y ago

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> reality is it's not me that's saying this, the used car market is saying this. EVs simply don't hold their value on the used market Those data defy simple explanation. The car with the highest 5-year depreciation is the Maserati Quattroporte (64.5%). After that the BMW 7 Series (61.8%) and Maserati Ghibli (61.3%). So for starters, you have to control for (a) sports and (b) expensive cars. Niches EVs have targeted. The Model 3 is shown to have a 42.9% 5-year depreciation, around the category average for SUVs.

mbesto 2y ago
> you have to control for (a) sports and (b) expensive cars. Fair. But the opposite is also true...Porsche 911 and 718 are both 9% and 17% depreciation values respectively, which bring the overall averages down too. Not to mention the Model S is #19 in worst depreciation. So there are a lot of factors at play other than simply saying "just eliminate all sports/expensive cars" > The Model 3 is shown to have a 42.9% 5-year depreciation, around the category average for SUVs. You first made a point about comparing apples to oranges (which was fair) and then compared apples to oranges to make another same point. /headscratch You would have to compare a Model 3 to a sedan, not an SUV. Point is, if EVs are as valuable as people make them out to be and the demand is so high for them, then why isn't the used car market telling us that?
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > You would have to compare a Model 3 to a sedan, not an SUV My point is that EV has a depreciation rate comparable to that of a popular automobile category. We wouldn't conclude adversely against SUVs for that number; we similarly shouldn't for the Model 3. > if EVs are as valuable as people make them out to be and the demand is so high for them The drumbeat of the last year has been about flagging demand for EVs. Who is saying demand is so high?
  - mbesto 2y ago
    > Who is saying demand is so high? https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/03/cars/musk-tesla-cars-value-ev-prices/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/03/cars/musk-tesla-cars-value-ev...
- floxy 2y ago
  I think the $7,500 federal tax credit screws up most people's depreciation calculation. Or at least not keeping that in mind skews people's perception. For example, I purchased a Nissan Leaf years ago, when it was still eligible for the full $7,500 credit. The MSRP was ~$28k. But I only paid ~$21.5k. So it seems like it suffered 23% depreciation the day I drove it off the lot, since no one would pay more than that for a used one, otherwise, they can just buy it brand new for $21.5k themselves. But that 23% number doesn't affect the owner of the car.

bearjaws 2y ago

It does not go down to 15kw. At old Tesla stations it went from 150kw to 75kw. Any v3 station (first introduced in 2019!) will stay at 150kw to 250kw. I haven't seen a v2 station in 2 years now. You also don't need a battery based on its age, you need it based on its mileage. Some people like my wife only drive 8k miles a year, which is more around 20 years...

mbesto 2y ago
> It does not go to 15kw It goes to whatever the software tells it to, which is based on the following factors: - What percentage the battery is at when it starts charging - Environmental conditions (cold/heat) - How many other cars are being charged (IIRC most super charger stations don't supply the max amps * the number of ports - they assume some cars will be throttled) A v3 can get up to 250 kW but only under optimal conditions. The more EVs on the road, the less optimal it becomes. > You also don't need a battery based on its age, you need it based on its mileage. Some people like my wife only drive 8k miles a year, which is more around 20 years True, but for reference, "Tesla also provides an 8-year warranty (or up to 150,000 miles, depending on the model) for its batteries, guaranteeing at least 70% capacity retention during this period". The average consumer doesn't understand that their car gets less range over time after use.
- bdangubic 2y ago
  The average consumer doesn't understand that their car gets less range over time after use. right, the average consumer never owned anything which runs on a battery before and those rare folk that might have owned like a cellphone surely think that cars have MAGIC batteries which unlike every other battery they have ever owned is going to be rock n roll for decades
  - mbesto 2y ago
    Cellphones didn't previously run on gasoline.
    - 2y ago

bryanlarsen 2y ago

> My friend said it best: "EVs are great second cars" I disagree. We've had an EV for ~5 years now, and have put about 10x as many miles on it as we have on our gasoline vehicle. The gasoline vehicle is the second car, and the EV is what we prefer for road trips. > your tires wear 20~30% faster Not in my experience, I'm getting 70k from a set of tires, which is comparable to previous cars. Just because a car can accelerate quickly doesn't mean you should. > and you have to replace the battery every 10 years. No you don't. Tesla's and BMW i3's from ~2013 are testing at around 85% battery capacity. https://www.wired.com/story/electric-cars-could-last-much-longer-than-most-think/ https://www.wired.com/story/electric-cars-could-last-much-lo... > The reality is it's not me that's saying this, the used car market is saying this. Absolutely. You can buy a 3 year old Tesla Model 3 for $20k, cheaper than a comparable gasoline car, and seems like an excellent deal. If it wasn't for the Musk stigma we'd likely be purchasing one to replace our gasoline car.

mbesto 2y ago
> Not in my experience Anecdotal. Just do a few google searches and the data says 20~30%. Torque, weight, etc. all conclude this. Just go into a discount tire and the guys will tell you this is true. > Just because a car can accelerate quickly doesn't mean you should. You've reinforced my point - which is most people don't know how to drive EVs with maintenance in mind. > NTesla's and BMW i3's from ~2013 are testing at around 85% battery capacity. So then why not warrant against it if this is so certain? Also, ICE gas tanks don't get smaller over time.
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  > So then why not warrant against it if this is so certain? They do. 8 years / 100,000 mile warranties suggest that ~3 sigma lifetime is at that level. IOW, Tesla likely believes that >99.5% of all cars will not need a warranty battery replacement by that point. To hit that level, the average car needs to do a lot better than that. > Also, ICE gas tanks don't get smaller over time. If measured in miles/tank, they definitely do. The gas mileage a 10 year old car gets is worse than the same car when it was new.
- 2y ago

seattle_spring 2y ago

> you have to replace the battery every 10 years That's like saying you have to replace a dishwasher every year because it only comes with a 1-year warranty.

r00fus 2y ago

We're a 2 EV family and have had no problems whatsoever. We do have a 3rd gas vehicle (older minivan) but that's mostly because when we bought the 2nd EV there were no reasonably priced 3-row vehicles (No, the Model X and Model Y don't count as a real 3 row), and we never got around to selling it. Yeah, EVs aren't yet at gas car parity but it's close enough for many people. We really don't do much interstate traveling and live in a sunny state.

holoduke 2y ago

Our diesel truck is our second vehicle we use when we go on long trips or when doing a hike in the forrest. Our model X is used daily. Perfect car. Cheap and reliable. Only 15 bucks for 300 miles.