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There might be a power struggle, but a civil war? Nope. For that, you'd need (at least two) roughly equally matched adversaries controlling the armed forces. Yo
by The_Colonel 2y ago
There might be a power struggle, but a civil war? Nope. For that, you'd need (at least two) roughly equally matched adversaries controlling the armed forces. You don't see anything like that and such division doesn't spring up out of nothing.
China will also not invade Siberia, it's much easier to control it economically than turning your quasi-ally into a mortal enemy. (besides, nukes)
- peutetre 2y ago> For that, you'd need (at least two) roughly equally matched adversaries controlling the armed forces. Or you have a military weakened and degraded by a pointless war of choice in Ukraine. And you have many armies controlled by oligarchs and warlords looking after their own interests (like Prigozhin). And you have many separatist movements, such has for example a movement for Siberian independence. And you have a power vacuum after the head of a mafia-style state is deposed or dies. After Putin all bets are off. Exactly this is happening in Myanmar right now: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42572620 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42572620
- tomas_nort 2y agoAnother power center with strong military relatively uninvolved in Ukraine and with growing interest in taking controll is Chechnya.