3 ms·
As a complete aside: Scotts love of Metaculus over other prediction markets blinded him in this years Presidential race and then wrote the most copium filled a
by FergusArgyll 2y ago
As a complete aside:
Scotts love of Metaculus over other prediction markets blinded him in this years Presidential race and then wrote the most copium filled article titled "Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced" [0] even though Metaculus has the worst calibration of any market [1] which should obviously be true because there's no money on the line (even fake money, see Manifold Markets, helps accuracy).
[0] https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/congrats-to-polymarket-but-i-still https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/congrats-to-polymarket-but-...
[1] https://calibration.city/ https://calibration.city/