The prediction markets are mostly illiquid and filled with degenerate gamblers trying to turn a 0.01 into a 1 so they overestimate tail chances because of the f

The prediction markets are mostly illiquid and filled with degenerate gamblers trying to turn a 0.01 into a 1 so they overestimate tail chances because of the financial incentive. Because of the long lock-up period, you can't arbitrage it with better knowledge: i.e. a 7% can't be turned into a 1% because "by 2030" locks you up for a really long time for small value.