3 ms·

Robotics has long been an area of promise but (I think) limited returns

by veunes 2y ago

spot5010 2y ago
Care to elaborate? I feel the. the real power of AI will be unlocked when AI can sense and interact with the world.
malux85 2y ago
Yeah but the limiting factor for ages has been software and batteries, both of which have been improving a lot in the last 5-8 years.
Animats 2y ago
Yes. I've known people with robotics startups, and have visited some of them. They're all gone now. But that was all prior to about 2015. Robots are a branch of industrial manufacturing machinery. That is not, historically, a high-margin business. It also demands high reliability and long machine life. Interestingly, there's a trend towards renting robots by the working hour. It's a service - the robot company comes in, sets up robot workers, services them as needed, and monitors them remotely. The robot company gets paid for each operating hour. Pricing is somewhat below what humans cost.[1] [1] https://bernardmarr.com/robots-as-a-service-a-technology-trend-every-business-must-consider/ https://bernardmarr.com/robots-as-a-service-a-technology-tre...
- ethbr1 2y ago
  Having been involved in similar financial arrangements in software automation, years ago, it makes sense. The end user usually doesn't have the expertise to even maintain the systems, nor does it make sense for them to do it in-house. Charging per item of work (operating hour or thing processed) allows use of consultants but keeps incentives aligned between all parties (maximize uptime/productivity).
- ksec 2y ago
  That is interesting. I assume robots here means something close to humanoid for rent, and be programmed to take some or most of the human's job and not robots in terms of industrial manufacturing machinery?
  - Animats 2y ago
    Robot, as used here, is, in more modern forms, one or more arms with a vision system. Or some kind of mobile base for moving things around.
  - e_y_ 2y ago
    They're industrial robot arms, not humanoids, although the concept of android workers getting paid an hourly fee or "wage" (going to their masters, an android rental corporation) would be fascinating.
    - bregma 2y ago
      Even just a robot arm with an appropriate sensors and hand attachment could replace human employees in the world's oldest profession. Consider what drove the video industry if you're looking to invest.
- rapsey 2y ago
  > Yes. I've known people with robotics startups, and have visited some of them. They're all gone now. But that was all prior to about 2015. Lots of dotcom busts in the late 90s were concepts that worked 10-15 years later. We just did not have broadband and smartphones. Battery and AI tech is quite likely to be the missing piece robotics lacked in the past.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    > Battery and AI tech is quite likely to be the missing piece robotics lacked in the past. Cheap semiconductors as well. Fabricating a chip on a 28nm and 48nm process is extremely commodified nowadays. These are the same processes used to fabricate an Nvidia Tesla or an i7 or Xeon barely a decade ago, so the raw compute power available at extremely commodified prices is insane. Just about every regional power has the ability to fabricate an Intel i7 or Nvidia Tesla equivalent nowadays. And most regional powers have 3-7 year plans to build domestic 14nm fabrication capacity as well now. A number of firms like Taiwan's PSMC have made a killing selling the end-to-end IP and workflow for fabrication.
- petra 2y ago
  Given that robot-as-a-service removes the biggest barriers for companies not buying robots, why aren't we seeing a huge growth in "employed" robots?
  - Animats 2y ago
    Because the setup is still too complicated. This will probably take off once Amazon finally gets robots that can do unboxing, picking, and boxing. They've been trying for years to get that to work. Amazon already has robots doing most of the lifting and carrying, but people still handle each item. People have been trying to do bin picking fulfillment with robots since the 1980s. Swisslog, Brightpick, and Universal Robotics have all demoed this, but so far it's not working well enough to take over. It's getting close, though.
contingencies 2y ago
Robotics is everywhere but you don't see it. The joke is we call it something else when it works. Large corporations with successful margin-supporting automation systems have every intent and reason to keep them secret. See for example ASML.
JFingleton 2y ago
Here in the UK there's been a boom in robot delivery over the years: https://www.starship.xyz/ https://www.starship.xyz/ "Slow but steady" I would call it.

Robotics has long been an area of promise but (I think) limited returns

by veunes 2y ago

Robotics has long been an area of promise but (I think) limited returns

spot5010 2y ago

Care to elaborate? I feel the. the real power of AI will be unlocked when AI can sense and interact with the world.

malux85 2y ago

Yeah but the limiting factor for ages has been software and batteries, both of which have been improving a lot in the last 5-8 years.

Animats 2y ago

Yes. I've known people with robotics startups, and have visited some of them. They're all gone now. But that was all prior to about 2015. Robots are a branch of industrial manufacturing machinery. That is not, historically, a high-margin business. It also demands high reliability and long machine life. Interestingly, there's a trend towards renting robots by the working hour. It's a service - the robot company comes in, sets up robot workers, services them as needed, and monitors them remotely. The robot company gets paid for each operating hour. Pricing is somewhat below what humans cost.[1] [1] https://bernardmarr.com/robots-as-a-service-a-technology-trend-every-business-must-consider/ https://bernardmarr.com/robots-as-a-service-a-technology-tre...

ethbr1 2y ago
Having been involved in similar financial arrangements in software automation, years ago, it makes sense. The end user usually doesn't have the expertise to even maintain the systems, nor does it make sense for them to do it in-house. Charging per item of work (operating hour or thing processed) allows use of consultants but keeps incentives aligned between all parties (maximize uptime/productivity).
ksec 2y ago
That is interesting. I assume robots here means something close to humanoid for rent, and be programmed to take some or most of the human's job and not robots in terms of industrial manufacturing machinery?
- Animats 2y ago
  Robot, as used here, is, in more modern forms, one or more arms with a vision system. Or some kind of mobile base for moving things around.
- e_y_ 2y ago
  They're industrial robot arms, not humanoids, although the concept of android workers getting paid an hourly fee or "wage" (going to their masters, an android rental corporation) would be fascinating.
  - bregma 2y ago
    Even just a robot arm with an appropriate sensors and hand attachment could replace human employees in the world's oldest profession. Consider what drove the video industry if you're looking to invest.
rapsey 2y ago
> Yes. I've known people with robotics startups, and have visited some of them. They're all gone now. But that was all prior to about 2015. Lots of dotcom busts in the late 90s were concepts that worked 10-15 years later. We just did not have broadband and smartphones. Battery and AI tech is quite likely to be the missing piece robotics lacked in the past.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  > Battery and AI tech is quite likely to be the missing piece robotics lacked in the past. Cheap semiconductors as well. Fabricating a chip on a 28nm and 48nm process is extremely commodified nowadays. These are the same processes used to fabricate an Nvidia Tesla or an i7 or Xeon barely a decade ago, so the raw compute power available at extremely commodified prices is insane. Just about every regional power has the ability to fabricate an Intel i7 or Nvidia Tesla equivalent nowadays. And most regional powers have 3-7 year plans to build domestic 14nm fabrication capacity as well now. A number of firms like Taiwan's PSMC have made a killing selling the end-to-end IP and workflow for fabrication.
petra 2y ago
Given that robot-as-a-service removes the biggest barriers for companies not buying robots, why aren't we seeing a huge growth in "employed" robots?
- Animats 2y ago
  Because the setup is still too complicated. This will probably take off once Amazon finally gets robots that can do unboxing, picking, and boxing. They've been trying for years to get that to work. Amazon already has robots doing most of the lifting and carrying, but people still handle each item. People have been trying to do bin picking fulfillment with robots since the 1980s. Swisslog, Brightpick, and Universal Robotics have all demoed this, but so far it's not working well enough to take over. It's getting close, though.

contingencies 2y ago

Robotics is everywhere but you don't see it. The joke is we call it something else when it works. Large corporations with successful margin-supporting automation systems have every intent and reason to keep them secret. See for example ASML.

JFingleton 2y ago

Here in the UK there's been a boom in robot delivery over the years: https://www.starship.xyz/ https://www.starship.xyz/ "Slow but steady" I would call it.