4 ms·

> The centrist Dems always blame those further left, not themselves. They did it in 2016 and this year too. well, unless there is an big untapped electorate ev

by fargle 2y ago

> The centrist Dems always blame those further left, not themselves. They did it in 2016 and this year too. well, unless there is an big untapped electorate even further left, that would make a lot of sense actually, wouldn't it?

mmooss 2y ago
Why would that make a lot of sense? Is there a large untapped electorate elsewhere on the spectrum? And more importantly, is there any evidence?
- johnnyanmac 2y ago
  You're asking for a lot of evidence on what's overall the opinions of an entire country. Something entire electorial campaigns apparently struggle to do despite their funding ballooning. You have to do that research yourself, that isn't a question answered within HN's character limit. But Bernie's popularity along the youth probably was not just some trend, to help you start.
  - fargle 2y ago
    > You're asking for a lot of evidence on what's overall the opinions of an entire country we literally just had a referendum on that. moving further left from 2016-2020-2024 lost voters. how pissed off do people have to be to have that result? that implies, very strongly, to me that there is a huge segment in the center-left to center-right that is really irritated right now. not bernie's group for sure. although he seems more center compared to the "squad". you should thank them for that.
    - mmooss 2y ago
      I haven't heard anyone say that Harris 2024 was further left than Biden 2020. Biden 2020 was probably the furthest left of the campaigns you list, and won. Clinton was more centrist and Harris moved back toward the center, and both lost. Also, it's hard to imagine a centrist Dem voting for Trump in any circumstances.
    - johnnyanmac 2y ago
      moving further left from 2016-2020-2024 lost voters. No, it continued the 30 year trend since Hw Bush. Right to left to right. It only really hints that people only rile up after the other party leaves office. So I guess "pissed off enough to be mildly annoying but not so pissed off to overcome an incumbent". But yes, the center is riled up, a little. The right moreso. Someone on the fringes is never not going to vote to begin with, so that's a bad way to judge those groups. >not bernie's group for sure. although he seems more center compared to the "squad". you should thank them for that. Really depends on your lens. For the EU, US is basically center right even with liberals. So Bernie would be a proper left wing candidate. But for US, that's about as liberal as we've been for decades. Decades of red scare narrative made many across the board hate the idea of "socialist ideals" like Universal healthcare and publicly owned utilities. It seems that's starting to crack,maybe.
  - mmooss 2y ago
    There's lots of research on election results and voting patterns. > You have to do that research yourself It's really on you or whoever is making the claim. > that isn't a question answered within HN's character limit It seems pretty straightforward to me. Who voted for what and why? If you don't know, then these claims are fabrications.
    - johnnyanmac 2y ago
      >There's lots of research on election results and voting patterns. Yes, thats the hard part. Lots of reach if varying quality and accuracy, before and after election analysis. Opinion pieces. So much to sift through. >It's really on you or whoever is making the claim. I didn't make the claim. But I want to emphasize that this isn't just a question you throw a link at. >If you don't know, then these claims are fabrications. If that's your approach to any social science, you're not getting far. Nro unless you have the money for a census with proper statisticians. Data will always be messy and debatable. >It seems pretty straightforward to me. Who voted for what and why? I hope the above at least sheds some light otherwise. At least if your goal is truly truth seeking and not randomly bashing heads on the internet.
      - mmooss 2y ago
        > Data will always be messy and debatable. I agree, but we have no data at all in this discussion. People are just making stuff up like they are self-evident truths.
- fargle 2y ago
  the center. you know, the existence of which just changed the course of the latest election...
  - mmooss 2y ago
    Why do you say that? Where is the evidence? Otherwise, these are just circular claims, unchecked by reality.
    - fargle 2y ago
      i think you miss my point. trump is obviously further right than either biden, kamala. whatever the relative left-ness of those choices where, it was obviously so much so too far left for about 2million+ people who, to be gracious, decided to hold their noses. so i'm left completely flumoxed why it's not blindingly obvious. at least at this point in time, those candidates' platforms seriously missed the mark. if those folks that were centrist-ish enough to even consider "holding their noses" to vote for trump, i can't imagine how they'd be supportive of anything even further to the left of the choices they had available and fairly rejected. how would moving further left capture those voters? (those willing to vote trump, perhaps marginally) i know it's not just right vs. left, but in this case all the other things seem to either be trump disadvanges (personality) or about the same for both of the two poles. nobody in the whole election seemed to be able to string a coherent sentence together, for example.
      - mmooss 2y ago
        My impression - I'm not in your head, of course - is that you don't see your own assumptions. > it was obviously so much so too far left for about 2million+ people How do you know why they voted that way? For example, there is evidence that many people voted for Trump because they thought he would do more for the economy. Maybe it was crime, or charisma or corruption or a million other things. Where is evidence to support your claim that it was a rejection of leftism? Why do you even believe it - assume it without question, afaict - if you have no evidence? (I'm assuming, for the sake of this comment, that this 2+ million cohort exists and voted a certain way.)

by fargle 2y ago

mmooss 2y ago

Why would that make a lot of sense? Is there a large untapped electorate elsewhere on the spectrum? And more importantly, is there any evidence?

johnnyanmac 2y ago
You're asking for a lot of evidence on what's overall the opinions of an entire country. Something entire electorial campaigns apparently struggle to do despite their funding ballooning. You have to do that research yourself, that isn't a question answered within HN's character limit. But Bernie's popularity along the youth probably was not just some trend, to help you start.
- fargle 2y ago
  > You're asking for a lot of evidence on what's overall the opinions of an entire country we literally just had a referendum on that. moving further left from 2016-2020-2024 lost voters. how pissed off do people have to be to have that result? that implies, very strongly, to me that there is a huge segment in the center-left to center-right that is really irritated right now. not bernie's group for sure. although he seems more center compared to the "squad". you should thank them for that.
  - mmooss 2y ago
    I haven't heard anyone say that Harris 2024 was further left than Biden 2020. Biden 2020 was probably the furthest left of the campaigns you list, and won. Clinton was more centrist and Harris moved back toward the center, and both lost. Also, it's hard to imagine a centrist Dem voting for Trump in any circumstances.
  - johnnyanmac 2y ago
    moving further left from 2016-2020-2024 lost voters. No, it continued the 30 year trend since Hw Bush. Right to left to right. It only really hints that people only rile up after the other party leaves office. So I guess "pissed off enough to be mildly annoying but not so pissed off to overcome an incumbent". But yes, the center is riled up, a little. The right moreso. Someone on the fringes is never not going to vote to begin with, so that's a bad way to judge those groups. >not bernie's group for sure. although he seems more center compared to the "squad". you should thank them for that. Really depends on your lens. For the EU, US is basically center right even with liberals. So Bernie would be a proper left wing candidate. But for US, that's about as liberal as we've been for decades. Decades of red scare narrative made many across the board hate the idea of "socialist ideals" like Universal healthcare and publicly owned utilities. It seems that's starting to crack,maybe.
- mmooss 2y ago
  There's lots of research on election results and voting patterns. > You have to do that research yourself It's really on you or whoever is making the claim. > that isn't a question answered within HN's character limit It seems pretty straightforward to me. Who voted for what and why? If you don't know, then these claims are fabrications.
  - johnnyanmac 2y ago
    >There's lots of research on election results and voting patterns. Yes, thats the hard part. Lots of reach if varying quality and accuracy, before and after election analysis. Opinion pieces. So much to sift through. >It's really on you or whoever is making the claim. I didn't make the claim. But I want to emphasize that this isn't just a question you throw a link at. >If you don't know, then these claims are fabrications. If that's your approach to any social science, you're not getting far. Nro unless you have the money for a census with proper statisticians. Data will always be messy and debatable. >It seems pretty straightforward to me. Who voted for what and why? I hope the above at least sheds some light otherwise. At least if your goal is truly truth seeking and not randomly bashing heads on the internet.
    - mmooss 2y ago
      > Data will always be messy and debatable. I agree, but we have no data at all in this discussion. People are just making stuff up like they are self-evident truths.
fargle 2y ago
the center. you know, the existence of which just changed the course of the latest election...
- mmooss 2y ago
  Why do you say that? Where is the evidence? Otherwise, these are just circular claims, unchecked by reality.
  - fargle 2y ago
    i think you miss my point. trump is obviously further right than either biden, kamala. whatever the relative left-ness of those choices where, it was obviously so much so too far left for about 2million+ people who, to be gracious, decided to hold their noses. so i'm left completely flumoxed why it's not blindingly obvious. at least at this point in time, those candidates' platforms seriously missed the mark. if those folks that were centrist-ish enough to even consider "holding their noses" to vote for trump, i can't imagine how they'd be supportive of anything even further to the left of the choices they had available and fairly rejected. how would moving further left capture those voters? (those willing to vote trump, perhaps marginally) i know it's not just right vs. left, but in this case all the other things seem to either be trump disadvanges (personality) or about the same for both of the two poles. nobody in the whole election seemed to be able to string a coherent sentence together, for example.
    - mmooss 2y ago
      My impression - I'm not in your head, of course - is that you don't see your own assumptions. > it was obviously so much so too far left for about 2million+ people How do you know why they voted that way? For example, there is evidence that many people voted for Trump because they thought he would do more for the economy. Maybe it was crime, or charisma or corruption or a million other things. Where is evidence to support your claim that it was a rejection of leftism? Why do you even believe it - assume it without question, afaict - if you have no evidence? (I'm assuming, for the sake of this comment, that this 2+ million cohort exists and voted a certain way.)