9 ms·

That is a myth propagated by the owners of the fishing companies. The real reason they oppose the EU is that they benefit immensely from having income and debt

That is a myth propagated by the owners of the fishing companies. The real reason they oppose the EU is that they benefit immensely from having income and debts in Euros and dollars, while their expenses and interest bearing assets are in the weak and high-interest ISK. Consider that icelandic mortgage interest rates are currently 9-11% but a few years ago they were 4% which was celebrated as historically extremely low rates.

MrDresden 2y ago
That's not entirely correct. The EU has an abysmal history of setting and managing ITQs in its waters, with Iceland having some of the best (but not at all perfect) managed waters in the world. So there is plenty to be skeptical about when it comes to how negotiations would go on the matter.
tugu77 2y ago
Um, joining the EU is not the same as joining the Euro. They can keep doing this exact thing after joining the EU if they keep their currency just like a few others are doing. No, this is mostly about fishing rights afaik. Britain also kept having issues on that front.
- lispm 2y ago
  > joining the EU is not the same as joining the Euro Now, every country joining the EU is expected to join the Euro at some point. https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/euro/enlargement-euro-area/who-can-join-and-when_en https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/euro/enlargement-euro-a... "Who can join and when? All EU Member States, except Denmark, are required to adopt the euro and join the euro area. To do this they must meet certain conditions known as 'convergence criteria'."
  - skissane 2y ago
    > Now, every country joining the EU is expected to join the Euro at some point. In theory yes, in practice no. The Swedish government has said repeatedly they don't plan to join despite being legally obliged to do so. EU law says they have to do it, but it also says it can't be done without their active cooperation, and there is no penalty if they refuse to cooperate. The obligation is essentially toothless. So Denmark having a formal opt-out from the Euro and Sweden not, is really more of a theoretical difference than a practically relevant one.
    - lispm 2y ago
      > The Swedish government has said repeatedly they don't plan to join despite being legally obliged to do so. Sweden is long in the EU. CURRENTLY the expectation to new member states to join the Euro when joining the EU is different -> much higher. Sweden was also long not in NATO. Now it is. Similar, support in polls for Euro introduction is rising.
      - skissane 2y ago
        > Sweden is long in the EU. CURRENTLY the expectation to new member states to join the Euro when joining the EU is different -> much higher. I don't agree. It isn't just Sweden; Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Romania too. The time between EU accession and Euro adoption is normally a decade or more. If a government doesn't want to adopt the Euro, there are heaps of levers they can pull to slow the process down, and there is no way to punish a government for doing that. The easiest is that you have to join ERM II at least two years before adopting the Euro, but nobody can force you to join ERM II – so Sweden, Poland, Czechia, Hungary and Romania have all refused to join it. The only current ERM II members are Denmark (with a formal opt-out), and Bulgaria (which wants to adopt the Euro – it had hoped to do it 1 January 2025, but the ECB says their inflation is too high – 5.1%, the limit is 3.3%). If Bulgaria gets inflation down in 2025, they may succeed in joining on 1 January 2026. When negotiating to join, the politicians say "sure, we promise we'll adopt the Euro", knowing that they'll likely be retired by the time joining the Euro is a real possibility. > Sweden was also long not in NATO. Now it is. Similar, support in polls for Euro introduction is rising. Yes, but that doesn't change the point – an EU member state (present or future) cannot be forced to adopt the Euro, it will only happen if the member state's government is willing, and they'll likely only be willing if it is sufficiently popular with their people.
        lispm 2y ago
        Currently 20 of 27 EU members have the Euro adopted. > an EU member state (present or future) cannot be forced to adopt the Euro Future members can be forced. They won't become EU members, without a clear will to adopt the policies which lead to the Euro.
kreykjalin 2y ago
No, it’s a very real threat. Icelandic waters can only be fished by Icelandic vessels. That’s what the cod wars were about; protecting our right to be the only ones to fish our waters. If we join the EU we’re pretty much guaranteed to lose this exclusive access to our waters, and that will be devastating for the economy, given how the fishing industry is one of very few industries keeping the economy afloat. Especially considering exports to other countries.
- Swenrekcah 2y ago
  Access to fishing and the quota system will definitely be one of if not the most important items to sort out, but it will not be devastating for the Icelandic economy if a portion of the quota is allocated to other EU members.
  - blibble 2y ago
    exceptions to the "acquis" have not once been made to new members you accept the entire body of law or you don't join the UK and Norway both tried to negotiate away the fisheries policy when they submitted applications in the 70s the UK "accepted" the CFP and and joined, Norway didn't and still remains outside given then the odds of Iceland joining the EU are practically zero
  - MrDresden 2y ago
    " but it will not be devastating for the Icelandic economy if a portion of the quota is allocated to other EU members." I don't think you realise how small the Icelandic economy truly is, and how big an effect fluctuations in fishing quote already have on it.
    - Swenrekcah 2y ago
      Oh I realise how small it is, which is why it makes better sense to join the EU.
      - MrDresden 2y ago

MrDresden 2y ago

That's not entirely correct. The EU has an abysmal history of setting and managing ITQs in its waters, with Iceland having some of the best (but not at all perfect) managed waters in the world. So there is plenty to be skeptical about when it comes to how negotiations would go on the matter.

tugu77 2y ago

Um, joining the EU is not the same as joining the Euro. They can keep doing this exact thing after joining the EU if they keep their currency just like a few others are doing. No, this is mostly about fishing rights afaik. Britain also kept having issues on that front.

lispm 2y ago
> joining the EU is not the same as joining the Euro Now, every country joining the EU is expected to join the Euro at some point. https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/euro/enlargement-euro-area/who-can-join-and-when_en https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/euro/enlargement-euro-a... "Who can join and when? All EU Member States, except Denmark, are required to adopt the euro and join the euro area. To do this they must meet certain conditions known as 'convergence criteria'."
- skissane 2y ago
  > Now, every country joining the EU is expected to join the Euro at some point. In theory yes, in practice no. The Swedish government has said repeatedly they don't plan to join despite being legally obliged to do so. EU law says they have to do it, but it also says it can't be done without their active cooperation, and there is no penalty if they refuse to cooperate. The obligation is essentially toothless. So Denmark having a formal opt-out from the Euro and Sweden not, is really more of a theoretical difference than a practically relevant one.
  - lispm 2y ago
    > The Swedish government has said repeatedly they don't plan to join despite being legally obliged to do so. Sweden is long in the EU. CURRENTLY the expectation to new member states to join the Euro when joining the EU is different -> much higher. Sweden was also long not in NATO. Now it is. Similar, support in polls for Euro introduction is rising.
    - skissane 2y ago
      > Sweden is long in the EU. CURRENTLY the expectation to new member states to join the Euro when joining the EU is different -> much higher. I don't agree. It isn't just Sweden; Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Romania too. The time between EU accession and Euro adoption is normally a decade or more. If a government doesn't want to adopt the Euro, there are heaps of levers they can pull to slow the process down, and there is no way to punish a government for doing that. The easiest is that you have to join ERM II at least two years before adopting the Euro, but nobody can force you to join ERM II – so Sweden, Poland, Czechia, Hungary and Romania have all refused to join it. The only current ERM II members are Denmark (with a formal opt-out), and Bulgaria (which wants to adopt the Euro – it had hoped to do it 1 January 2025, but the ECB says their inflation is too high – 5.1%, the limit is 3.3%). If Bulgaria gets inflation down in 2025, they may succeed in joining on 1 January 2026. When negotiating to join, the politicians say "sure, we promise we'll adopt the Euro", knowing that they'll likely be retired by the time joining the Euro is a real possibility. > Sweden was also long not in NATO. Now it is. Similar, support in polls for Euro introduction is rising. Yes, but that doesn't change the point – an EU member state (present or future) cannot be forced to adopt the Euro, it will only happen if the member state's government is willing, and they'll likely only be willing if it is sufficiently popular with their people.
      - lispm 2y ago
        Currently 20 of 27 EU members have the Euro adopted. > an EU member state (present or future) cannot be forced to adopt the Euro Future members can be forced. They won't become EU members, without a clear will to adopt the policies which lead to the Euro.

kreykjalin 2y ago

No, it’s a very real threat. Icelandic waters can only be fished by Icelandic vessels. That’s what the cod wars were about; protecting our right to be the only ones to fish our waters. If we join the EU we’re pretty much guaranteed to lose this exclusive access to our waters, and that will be devastating for the economy, given how the fishing industry is one of very few industries keeping the economy afloat. Especially considering exports to other countries.

Swenrekcah 2y ago
Access to fishing and the quota system will definitely be one of if not the most important items to sort out, but it will not be devastating for the Icelandic economy if a portion of the quota is allocated to other EU members.
- blibble 2y ago
  exceptions to the "acquis" have not once been made to new members you accept the entire body of law or you don't join the UK and Norway both tried to negotiate away the fisheries policy when they submitted applications in the 70s the UK "accepted" the CFP and and joined, Norway didn't and still remains outside given then the odds of Iceland joining the EU are practically zero
- MrDresden 2y ago
  " but it will not be devastating for the Icelandic economy if a portion of the quota is allocated to other EU members." I don't think you realise how small the Icelandic economy truly is, and how big an effect fluctuations in fishing quote already have on it.
  - Swenrekcah 2y ago
    Oh I realise how small it is, which is why it makes better sense to join the EU.
    - MrDresden 2y ago