Right. By failure I personally meant the monetary value being erased. e.g going from $100k to $10k, staying there for a few years trading sideways, then going

Right. By failure I personally meant the monetary value being erased. e.g going from $100k to $10k, staying there for a few years trading sideways, then going down to $0 (or close, whatever) That part feels extremely unlikely to me. I would give it in the range of 10-25% chance of occurring, given the history, momentum and human behavior.