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Isn't it an asset or commodity, and not a currency,[0] and subject to speculative swings? If so, that would make it like a stock, and some stocks have held up o

by k310 2y ago

Isn't it an asset or commodity, and not a currency,[0] and subject to speculative swings? If so, that would make it like a stock, and some stocks have held up over time, only to collapse. The 3 factors in the OP would apply, including the effect of selling large blocks of shares. I don't know the concentration/distribution among owners. We can only speculate on black swans. A worldwide scandal? (bribes, blackmail on a global scale) Or maybe AI grabs all the electrical energy? Just wild guesses. [0] https://decrypt.co/47566/is-bitcoin-an-asset-a-commodity-or-a-currency https://decrypt.co/47566/is-bitcoin-an-asset-a-commodity-or-...

enether 2y ago
I think the word definition we use doesn’t matter. A currency can be subject to speculative swings too. Your reasoning doesn’t sound correct to me - it reasons by analogy. Yes stocks are subject to swings in value and some have collapsed. But gold is subject to swings in value too and hasn’t collapsed. There is one very key difference between stocks and monetary assets like gold and bitcoin. The former have an underlying revenue stream you’re buying with each share, and that puts both a floor and a ceiling on their value. (You’re unlikely to buy a stock at 1000x revenue) The latter have no underlying stream and are valued purely based off each humans read on how widely accepted and how widely desired the monetary assets is. This means these assets have no ceiling until every human on the planet adopts them. Gold may go to $10,000/oz tomorrow, some people will feel it’s overvalued temporarily, but in due time it’ll become the new normal price. Of course, this also means these assets have no floor - they could go to literal zero. But it’s hard to do, because you somehow need to change the mind of every individual person to believe that the asset has no value. This is impossible to do instantly and more probably to happen on a prolonged period of some negative feedback cycle

by k310 2y ago

enether 2y ago

I think the word definition we use doesn’t matter. A currency can be subject to speculative swings too. Your reasoning doesn’t sound correct to me - it reasons by analogy. Yes stocks are subject to swings in value and some have collapsed. But gold is subject to swings in value too and hasn’t collapsed. There is one very key difference between stocks and monetary assets like gold and bitcoin. The former have an underlying revenue stream you’re buying with each share, and that puts both a floor and a ceiling on their value. (You’re unlikely to buy a stock at 1000x revenue) The latter have no underlying stream and are valued purely based off each humans read on how widely accepted and how widely desired the monetary assets is. This means these assets have no ceiling until every human on the planet adopts them. Gold may go to $10,000/oz tomorrow, some people will feel it’s overvalued temporarily, but in due time it’ll become the new normal price. Of course, this also means these assets have no floor - they could go to literal zero. But it’s hard to do, because you somehow need to change the mind of every individual person to believe that the asset has no value. This is impossible to do instantly and more probably to happen on a prolonged period of some negative feedback cycle