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> Also - tactical nukes won't significantly change anything on the battlefield. its not about Ukrainian battlefield, its more if western missiles will be destr

> Also - tactical nukes won't significantly change anything on the battlefield. its not about Ukrainian battlefield, its more if western missiles will be destroying Russian infra, Putin will strike objects/bases/infra in Eastern Europe, he was very clear about it during initial invasion message.

ajuc 2y ago
Putin was very clear the last 10 times too :) About western tanks, military jets, etc. It's all bullshit. Out of all the things Putin won't do - nuking NATO is the first.
- riku_iki 2y ago
  Ukraine is receiving outdated, underequiped and limited inventory. I won't be surprised if there are some direct negotiations with Russia about what is allowed and what is not. There is line after which Putin will launch nukes, destruction of major foundational infra totally could be it: 1. Putin will want to suppress Nato from further steps. 2. Population will likely demand this as an act of revenge. 3. There will be some self defense justification. It won't be massive attack, first nuke to be launched on Ukrainian infra, and second on some EU military base, after which NATO will stop and suck it up(likely after first nuke) if Trump won't decide to escalate which is very unlikely.
  - lukan 2y ago
    A nuclear attack on NATO territory won't be sucked up. Neither would be one on Ukraine. And both sides know, that this has a high chance of escalating further.
    - riku_iki 2y ago
      And what NATO will do exactly in your opinion?
      - lukan 2y ago
        Depends on what would be hit. If a tactical nuke on Ukraine - then likely a massive military response and even china would distance themself. A tactical nuke on NATO would likely have the automated chain reaction of all out war.
        riku_iki 2y ago
        > then likely a massive military response like what? > even china would distance themself. China will likely support this, to legalize their own similar potential actions > A tactical nuke on NATO would likely have the automated chain reaction of all out war. how do you see this? Trump likely will decide to not engage, and EU is weak disorganized, and don't have teeth for major escalation against Russia's nukes.
        lukan 2y ago
        "China will likely support this, to legalize their own similar potential actions" Not at all, because chinas legal angle with Taiwan is the opposite - the holy territorial integrity. Which is why they critiziced russia for invading officially and don't give really support. The support they do give, is still doing lucrative buisness with russia. That is in their own interest and they like NATO attention split. But the legal situation they don't like as russia is clearly violating territorial integrity - which is their argument for annexing Taiwan. And Trump is an old man and most of the nuclear response is pretty hardcoded into the military institutions. Meaning, so many people will tell Trump he will be seen as weak if he does not react, that he will push the red buttons.
        riku_iki 2y ago
        > Not at all, because chinas legal angle with Taiwan is the opposite we are discussing hypothetical situation of Russia nuking military bases if western missiles produce large damage on Russian core infra. China will likely also want to nuke bases in Japan, S.Korea and Philippines as act of self defense, regardless if Taiwan will be the reason or something else. > And Trump is an old man and most of the nuclear response is pretty hardcoded into the military institutions. Meaning, so many people will tell Trump he will be seen as weak if he does not react, that he will push the red buttons. I don't believe this. He and his appointments likely will say Russia is Europe's problems, lets better build wall on Mexico's border instead of mutually annihilate each other.
  - ajuc 2y ago
    NATO can destroy russia conventionally in a response to a nuclear attack. You can't sell a first strike nuclear attack to the rest of the world as "justified". And a tactical nuke won't change anything significantly military or economically-wise. It would be a political statement (and a completely braindead one). So, in short - it won't happen.
    - riku_iki 2y ago
      > NATO can destroy russia conventionally in a response to a nuclear attack. they cannot destroy Russia because Russia will hit by even more nukes > You can't sell a first strike nuclear attack to the rest of the world as "justified". They sold invasion to Ukraine to the world to some extend, they still are in UN security council, plenty of countries trading with them. If they mass hit by western missiles, it will be even easier to sell. > And a tactical nuke won't change anything significantly military or economically-wise. it will make NATO countries to reconsider their actions.

ajuc 2y ago

Putin was very clear the last 10 times too :) About western tanks, military jets, etc. It's all bullshit. Out of all the things Putin won't do - nuking NATO is the first.

riku_iki 2y ago
Ukraine is receiving outdated, underequiped and limited inventory. I won't be surprised if there are some direct negotiations with Russia about what is allowed and what is not. There is line after which Putin will launch nukes, destruction of major foundational infra totally could be it: 1. Putin will want to suppress Nato from further steps. 2. Population will likely demand this as an act of revenge. 3. There will be some self defense justification. It won't be massive attack, first nuke to be launched on Ukrainian infra, and second on some EU military base, after which NATO will stop and suck it up(likely after first nuke) if Trump won't decide to escalate which is very unlikely.
- lukan 2y ago
  A nuclear attack on NATO territory won't be sucked up. Neither would be one on Ukraine. And both sides know, that this has a high chance of escalating further.
  - riku_iki 2y ago
    And what NATO will do exactly in your opinion?
    - lukan 2y ago
      Depends on what would be hit. If a tactical nuke on Ukraine - then likely a massive military response and even china would distance themself. A tactical nuke on NATO would likely have the automated chain reaction of all out war.
      - riku_iki 2y ago
        > then likely a massive military response like what? > even china would distance themself. China will likely support this, to legalize their own similar potential actions > A tactical nuke on NATO would likely have the automated chain reaction of all out war. how do you see this? Trump likely will decide to not engage, and EU is weak disorganized, and don't have teeth for major escalation against Russia's nukes.
        lukan 2y ago
        "China will likely support this, to legalize their own similar potential actions" Not at all, because chinas legal angle with Taiwan is the opposite - the holy territorial integrity. Which is why they critiziced russia for invading officially and don't give really support. The support they do give, is still doing lucrative buisness with russia. That is in their own interest and they like NATO attention split. But the legal situation they don't like as russia is clearly violating territorial integrity - which is their argument for annexing Taiwan. And Trump is an old man and most of the nuclear response is pretty hardcoded into the military institutions. Meaning, so many people will tell Trump he will be seen as weak if he does not react, that he will push the red buttons.
        riku_iki 2y ago
        > Not at all, because chinas legal angle with Taiwan is the opposite we are discussing hypothetical situation of Russia nuking military bases if western missiles produce large damage on Russian core infra. China will likely also want to nuke bases in Japan, S.Korea and Philippines as act of self defense, regardless if Taiwan will be the reason or something else. > And Trump is an old man and most of the nuclear response is pretty hardcoded into the military institutions. Meaning, so many people will tell Trump he will be seen as weak if he does not react, that he will push the red buttons. I don't believe this. He and his appointments likely will say Russia is Europe's problems, lets better build wall on Mexico's border instead of mutually annihilate each other.
- ajuc 2y ago
  NATO can destroy russia conventionally in a response to a nuclear attack. You can't sell a first strike nuclear attack to the rest of the world as "justified". And a tactical nuke won't change anything significantly military or economically-wise. It would be a political statement (and a completely braindead one). So, in short - it won't happen.
  - riku_iki 2y ago
    > NATO can destroy russia conventionally in a response to a nuclear attack. they cannot destroy Russia because Russia will hit by even more nukes > You can't sell a first strike nuclear attack to the rest of the world as "justified". They sold invasion to Ukraine to the world to some extend, they still are in UN security council, plenty of countries trading with them. If they mass hit by western missiles, it will be even easier to sell. > And a tactical nuke won't change anything significantly military or economically-wise. it will make NATO countries to reconsider their actions.