4 ms·

Because this isn’t the school yard. And the country you label a “bully” has nukes and probably cares more about Ukraine than you do, based on willingness for sa

by leobg 2y ago

Because this isn’t the school yard. And the country you label a “bully” has nukes and probably cares more about Ukraine than you do, based on willingness for sacrifices (though in reverse). There were people talking like you among JFK’s chief of staff during the Cuban Missile crisis. Same argument. Had JFK listened to them, we very likely would not be here today.

scotty79 2y ago
School bully might have a gun but if he uses it then it's game over for him too. And russia behaves like a bully. Any step back emboldens them. What might have been true at the height of cold war might not be true now. Befriending the opponent failed. Now it's time to finish the job and actually win the cold war. NATO already knows this and preparations have begun. There's very little chance to avoid the direct conflict unless russia collapses harder than it did when soviet union fell. This time they won't be keeping their nukes or whatever's left of them.
- leobg 2y ago
  If this was a computer game, I’d see it the same way. But unlike in a computer game, in the real world, that would you have labeled your enemy, does not simply disappear. If anything, you’ll create a vacuum. And I am not sure where you are taking the confidence that who or what ever feels that vacuum will be better than the status quo. The Americans have tried that in Iraq and Syria. The Vietnam war as well. And I believe the result, in every case, has been anything but that nice clean victory that “finishing off” of your enemy in a computer game promises. In my view, this comes down to Chesterton’s fence. Before you tear down a fence, it would be helpful to understand how it came to be erected in the first place. Please do correct me if I’m wrong, but pretty much the only time the strategy of killing of an enemy regime worked was Hitler. That was a man who applied industrial processes to murdering humans - rail networks, assembly line processing, gas chambers. This is not the level of evil we are facing here, at all. If Putin is anything as evil as you think he is, he will surely have systems in place that will ensure the destruction of major cities in the United States in case of anything happening to him or his regime. You schoolyard, bully, metaphor, while having the benefit of being easy to understand, carries with it a risk - 1%, 5%? - that our children will find themselves in the world of A Canticle for Leibowitz.
  - scotty79 2y ago
    Leaving the defeated be turned out to be a terrible idea again and again. Fortunately we have a very good blueprint for civilising rouge states straight out of World War II (as you noticed). Basically you need to divide and control. Indefinitely. Until democratic mechanisms are developed and society gets educated. Until a new generation grows and flourishes. Basically this time russia gets Germany treatment. This will cost money but still less that leaving them be. And some of it is going to be recouped with their natural resources. Putin is just as evil as hitler and even more stupid and inept. While the West was developing, russia deteriorated. Nuclear capacity of russia is no longer believable. Attempts at demonstrating capacity for delivering icbm payloads ended up with crater on the launch site. The best they could do was Oreshnik that they try to sell as a new weapon which it isn't. The degree they try to lean into it and present it as a credible threat clearly shows that they have nothing else at this point and very few of that. 45 nuclear threats all ignored without consequence don't look good either. It's even debatable how much of a threat Soviet Union really was at the height of its power because myth of its power was mostly manufactured and reinforced by USA that could use it as an excuse to funnel money to military industrial complex which otherwise would be hard sell with largely isolationistic public. It could be plainly seen when Soviet Union collapsed and USA was briefly aimless until it found new enemy to blow out of proportions in the form of terrorism. It was crap so they switched quickly to China. They no longer have a need for russia so they no longer are going to be doing marketing for putin. Bully had a gun but he kept in in damp cellar. So the time to stomp him is now, even if there's some risk remaining, before he steals some money, to buy some solvent and oil to clean the gun he thought he won't ever need to use. Some nukes might fly, and even a few might land but it's the best time there will ever be to turn russia to ex nuclear power. History doesn't stand in place. Thousand of nukes were already detonated on Earth. Few more from russia arsenal that might still actually launch and explode will make a very small difference. And retribution for using any nukes will be more terrible than what anyone can even imagine.
    - medo-bear 2y ago
      Can you please hook me up with your dealer

by leobg 2y ago

scotty79 2y ago

School bully might have a gun but if he uses it then it's game over for him too. And russia behaves like a bully. Any step back emboldens them. What might have been true at the height of cold war might not be true now. Befriending the opponent failed. Now it's time to finish the job and actually win the cold war. NATO already knows this and preparations have begun. There's very little chance to avoid the direct conflict unless russia collapses harder than it did when soviet union fell. This time they won't be keeping their nukes or whatever's left of them.

leobg 2y ago
If this was a computer game, I’d see it the same way. But unlike in a computer game, in the real world, that would you have labeled your enemy, does not simply disappear. If anything, you’ll create a vacuum. And I am not sure where you are taking the confidence that who or what ever feels that vacuum will be better than the status quo. The Americans have tried that in Iraq and Syria. The Vietnam war as well. And I believe the result, in every case, has been anything but that nice clean victory that “finishing off” of your enemy in a computer game promises. In my view, this comes down to Chesterton’s fence. Before you tear down a fence, it would be helpful to understand how it came to be erected in the first place. Please do correct me if I’m wrong, but pretty much the only time the strategy of killing of an enemy regime worked was Hitler. That was a man who applied industrial processes to murdering humans - rail networks, assembly line processing, gas chambers. This is not the level of evil we are facing here, at all. If Putin is anything as evil as you think he is, he will surely have systems in place that will ensure the destruction of major cities in the United States in case of anything happening to him or his regime. You schoolyard, bully, metaphor, while having the benefit of being easy to understand, carries with it a risk - 1%, 5%? - that our children will find themselves in the world of A Canticle for Leibowitz.
- scotty79 2y ago
  Leaving the defeated be turned out to be a terrible idea again and again. Fortunately we have a very good blueprint for civilising rouge states straight out of World War II (as you noticed). Basically you need to divide and control. Indefinitely. Until democratic mechanisms are developed and society gets educated. Until a new generation grows and flourishes. Basically this time russia gets Germany treatment. This will cost money but still less that leaving them be. And some of it is going to be recouped with their natural resources. Putin is just as evil as hitler and even more stupid and inept. While the West was developing, russia deteriorated. Nuclear capacity of russia is no longer believable. Attempts at demonstrating capacity for delivering icbm payloads ended up with crater on the launch site. The best they could do was Oreshnik that they try to sell as a new weapon which it isn't. The degree they try to lean into it and present it as a credible threat clearly shows that they have nothing else at this point and very few of that. 45 nuclear threats all ignored without consequence don't look good either. It's even debatable how much of a threat Soviet Union really was at the height of its power because myth of its power was mostly manufactured and reinforced by USA that could use it as an excuse to funnel money to military industrial complex which otherwise would be hard sell with largely isolationistic public. It could be plainly seen when Soviet Union collapsed and USA was briefly aimless until it found new enemy to blow out of proportions in the form of terrorism. It was crap so they switched quickly to China. They no longer have a need for russia so they no longer are going to be doing marketing for putin. Bully had a gun but he kept in in damp cellar. So the time to stomp him is now, even if there's some risk remaining, before he steals some money, to buy some solvent and oil to clean the gun he thought he won't ever need to use. Some nukes might fly, and even a few might land but it's the best time there will ever be to turn russia to ex nuclear power. History doesn't stand in place. Thousand of nukes were already detonated on Earth. Few more from russia arsenal that might still actually launch and explode will make a very small difference. And retribution for using any nukes will be more terrible than what anyone can even imagine.
  - medo-bear 2y ago
    Can you please hook me up with your dealer