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> There was 0 chance Ukraine was going to just flop over. That's a huge hindsight bias. Even the most optimistic scenarios from various secret services / think

> There was 0 chance Ukraine was going to just flop over. That's a huge hindsight bias. Even the most optimistic scenarios from various secret services / think tanks predicted only weeks / few months of resistance at the most. If you read Ukrainian accounts, most weren't very optimistic either. You can also read up how many commanders in the south defected - having more such defectors could flip the war quite quickly. The question of whether to defect or not (or simply run) is something which many did on the spot based on their personal circumstances and outlook, it's extremely difficult to predict.

Sammi 2y ago
Most Ukrainians didn't defect. Most Ukrainians knew then what we all know now. No hindsight bias here. In fact there were even analysts outside Ukraine that did listen to Ukrainians and who also knew what was going on. Here you can listen to Anders Puck Nielsen explain in jan 2022 what we all understand now, that it would be a large and terrible war: https://youtu.be/23JYPb_jHpg?si=6lMedJpEkeuPRuhv https://youtu.be/23JYPb_jHpg?si=6lMedJpEkeuPRuhv https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krhmeUkfhu4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krhmeUkfhu4
belorn 2y ago
There was no news article where I lived (or international) that predicted that resistance would only last weeks or months. Those that did make any prediction about the length of the war pointed towards modern wars like those in the middle east, which demonstrated that modern wars do not end suddenly regardless of what progress either side makes. As long as people have access to weapons there will be enough resistance to make an area a constant war zone. In the past you needed large armies standing in a line, and tanks to crush that line. When armies made enough progress the remaining soldiers either surrender or ran away. Today you can have a handful people operating a drone to sink a warship, or fire a missile against a plane, or just planting random explosives and mines. They get killed and a new group pop up elsewhere doing the exact same thing. The only method to actually win by eliminating resistance becomes burning down every building and killing every person who used to live there, which obviously is immoral and hurts military moral, takes a lot of time, a lot of resources and people, and diplomatic resources. For a country like Ukraine or Russia it would take decades or centuries.
- The_Colonel 2y ago
  > There was no news article where I lived (or international) that predicted that resistance would only last weeks or months. Then you must have not been paying attention. A summary of those failed predictions: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-predictions-wrong-intelligence/32275740.html https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-predictions-... It's a roughly equal part of underestimating Ukrainians and overestimating Russians. > Those that did make any prediction about the length of the war pointed towards modern wars like those in the middle east, which demonstrated that modern wars do not end suddenly regardless of what progress either side makes. You mean like Crimea where the resistance never died down and was an active battlefield with daily activity of partisan groups? /s
  - ANewFormation 2y ago
    That article doesn't offer much in the way of citations - instead assuming the claims and mocking the implied makers without clearly stating who they are. I think that's probably because the original quote about Kyiv falling in days didn't come from Russian political or military leaders, but from Mark Milley [1] - the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. After that claim was demonstrated to be clearly less than brilliant, the propaganda machine then began subtly (and then not so subtly) suggesting it was actually Russia that was making such claims. But that was always plainly absurd. The last normal war Russia had was against Chechnya, another country that was tiny and practically unequipped relative to Ukraine, yet that war lasted a decade and had tens of thousands of deaths with a huge culture of great music [2] perpetually reminding people how brutal that war truly was. You won't find a single source from a Russian political/military leader saying it'd be short, because they all knew it wouldn't be if there wasn't a quick agreement reached. The one quote people were able to find was from some television personality in some segment. But I hope Russia(ns) aren't citing e.g. Rachel Maddow to get insight into American positions on issues ! [1] - https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mark-milley-ukraine-war-prediction-fall-72-hours https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mark-milley-ukraine-war-pre... [2] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8e5GDbkS3Gw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8e5GDbkS3Gw
    - 2y ago
baybal2 2y ago
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Sammi 2y ago

Most Ukrainians didn't defect. Most Ukrainians knew then what we all know now. No hindsight bias here. In fact there were even analysts outside Ukraine that did listen to Ukrainians and who also knew what was going on. Here you can listen to Anders Puck Nielsen explain in jan 2022 what we all understand now, that it would be a large and terrible war: https://youtu.be/23JYPb_jHpg?si=6lMedJpEkeuPRuhv https://youtu.be/23JYPb_jHpg?si=6lMedJpEkeuPRuhv https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krhmeUkfhu4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krhmeUkfhu4

belorn 2y ago

There was no news article where I lived (or international) that predicted that resistance would only last weeks or months. Those that did make any prediction about the length of the war pointed towards modern wars like those in the middle east, which demonstrated that modern wars do not end suddenly regardless of what progress either side makes. As long as people have access to weapons there will be enough resistance to make an area a constant war zone. In the past you needed large armies standing in a line, and tanks to crush that line. When armies made enough progress the remaining soldiers either surrender or ran away. Today you can have a handful people operating a drone to sink a warship, or fire a missile against a plane, or just planting random explosives and mines. They get killed and a new group pop up elsewhere doing the exact same thing. The only method to actually win by eliminating resistance becomes burning down every building and killing every person who used to live there, which obviously is immoral and hurts military moral, takes a lot of time, a lot of resources and people, and diplomatic resources. For a country like Ukraine or Russia it would take decades or centuries.

The_Colonel 2y ago
> There was no news article where I lived (or international) that predicted that resistance would only last weeks or months. Then you must have not been paying attention. A summary of those failed predictions: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-predictions-wrong-intelligence/32275740.html https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-predictions-... It's a roughly equal part of underestimating Ukrainians and overestimating Russians. > Those that did make any prediction about the length of the war pointed towards modern wars like those in the middle east, which demonstrated that modern wars do not end suddenly regardless of what progress either side makes. You mean like Crimea where the resistance never died down and was an active battlefield with daily activity of partisan groups? /s
- ANewFormation 2y ago
  That article doesn't offer much in the way of citations - instead assuming the claims and mocking the implied makers without clearly stating who they are. I think that's probably because the original quote about Kyiv falling in days didn't come from Russian political or military leaders, but from Mark Milley [1] - the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. After that claim was demonstrated to be clearly less than brilliant, the propaganda machine then began subtly (and then not so subtly) suggesting it was actually Russia that was making such claims. But that was always plainly absurd. The last normal war Russia had was against Chechnya, another country that was tiny and practically unequipped relative to Ukraine, yet that war lasted a decade and had tens of thousands of deaths with a huge culture of great music [2] perpetually reminding people how brutal that war truly was. You won't find a single source from a Russian political/military leader saying it'd be short, because they all knew it wouldn't be if there wasn't a quick agreement reached. The one quote people were able to find was from some television personality in some segment. But I hope Russia(ns) aren't citing e.g. Rachel Maddow to get insight into American positions on issues ! [1] - https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mark-milley-ukraine-war-prediction-fall-72-hours https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mark-milley-ukraine-war-pre... [2] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8e5GDbkS3Gw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8e5GDbkS3Gw
  - 2y ago

baybal2 2y ago

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