3 ms·
>It’s about demand isn’t it? Yes. There used to be a saying the most expensive Fab ( or factory ) isn't the most advance Fab, but an empty Fab. You cant built
by ksec 2y ago
>It’s about demand isn’t it?
Yes. There used to be a saying the most expensive Fab ( or factory ) isn't the most advance Fab, but an empty Fab.
You cant built without first ensuring you can fill it, you cant fill it without first ensuring you can deliver. And Intel has failed to deliver twice with their custom foundry. Both times with Nokia and Ericsson. How the two fall for it twice is completely beyond me, but then Intel are known to have very good sales teams.
Intel will need another Apple moment that has huge demand, little margin, but willing to pay up front. On the assumption that Intel is even price competitive. The Apple modem may be it. But given the current situation with Intel as they want to lower Capital spending I am not even sure if betting on Intel is a risk Apple is willing to make. Comparing to a stable consistent relationship with TSMC.
- donavanm 2y ago> On the assumption that Intel is even price competitive. The Apple modem may be it. Which is super interesting/ironic with the entire reason for an “apple modem” is due to Intels failure there a decade ago. Bonus irony for the subsequent acquisition.
- zitterbewegung 2y agoIntel wasn't able to ship a competitive modem to Qualcomm and the whole point of the acquisition was to get rid of Qualcomm and even apple hasn't gotten a shipping version of a 5g modem for six years since the first intel modem started in 2018. This was really to vertically integrate the modem in all of the relevant Apple Silicon devices and it keeps going on...
- causality0 2y agoAt this point I'm starting to wonder if Intel's corporate strategy is "pray all of the fabs in Taiwan are destroyed during a Chinese invasion".
- kayewiggin 2y agoThen Intel is going to have to wait for a very long time. At best, China is currently in a scenario similar to Japan's lost decade of 30 years or US's Great Depression. At worst, China's current deflation + massive debt seems eerily similar to Weimar Germany's early internal devaluation. China is pretty fucked.
- causality0 2y agoPeter Zeihan is very witty but he's been saying the Chinese are three years away from cannibalizing each other for food for about ten years now.
- philipov 2y agoIt's unwise to forget that the thing that pulled both the US and Germany out of the Depression was war.
- kayewiggin 2y agoUS fully recovered from Great Depression in 1939, 2 years before entering ww2. Weimar Germany started in 1918 and ended in 1933 at the beginning of nazi Germany, 15 years later. You can't start a war when you are truly broke, much like China is today. And China is aging super fast, unlike Germany or US during the 30s.
- mistrial9 2y ago> US fully recovered from Great Depression in 1939 this is disinformation. source: relatives that were alive in California and other states at that time
- ijidak 2y agoChina is broke? That's news to me. They're undergoing a difficult time sure, but broke seems like a stretch. Japan has struggled for 30 years, but during most of that time have they been broke? Most countries in the world would love to "struggle" like Japan. What does broke mean? China still has a currency earning export juggernaut and world class companies. And, they build everything they need for war. Russia with its energy and China with its manufacturing has sufficient assets to wage a World War 3 whether the U.S. wants it or not. Wars aren't financed the same as peacetime economies. Countries impress factories and manpower into service. In some ways, if your country is sufficiently self sufficient, it's much cheaper than running a peacetime economy. Of course, if you lose, then you're wrecked.
- Hikikomori 2y agoIIRC you can add LG to the list of intel failures.