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If you believe you can consistently predict future like that, it should clearly guide your investment in stocks. However, just like how quickly and suddenly In

If you believe you can consistently predict future like that, it should clearly guide your investment in stocks. However, just like how quickly and suddenly Intel lost the lead, things may turn around for TSMC too: at some point, their research hits a dead end and somebody overtakes them too.

ksec 2y ago
>If you believe you can consistently predict future like that, it should clearly guide your investment in stocks. Perhaps I should have written with Disclosures. For the record I did invest in AMD when it was below $3 and TSMC at below $400TWD. None of these are investment advices so take it what you will. ( You get much better return with Tesla and Nvidia in the same period of time but then investment isn't always about best returns. ) And I was waiting to invest into Intel, unfortunately Pat is gone. To my words I said this in April 2023 [1] "I am just worried if Stock price continue to fall, Pat may be forced out again by those stupid Board. And if Pat is out, I won’t invest in Intel at all." As you will read in my reply below, I have a very negative view on Intel's board for a very very long time. >However, just like how quickly and suddenly Intel lost the lead It wasn't quick or even sudden. I wrote about it in 2014 and got a death threat from Intel Fan boys then. I have been questioning about Intel's management on GPU, Fab capacity allocation, CapEX, dividends etc for a very long time. For another point, TSMC never wanted to be the most advance manufacturing Fab. Them having leading node is purely accidental and Intel's slip up. They have been doing Intel -1 node for most of their history and are doing just fine. Providing Pure Play Foundry Services with Industry wide support on Tools at a reasonable / acceptable price for Fabless players. And right now, they are firing on all cylinders. Again. None of these are investment advices and personal opinion only. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35722974 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35722974
- necovek 2y ago
  "Sudden" with big enterprises is still a span of multiple years: probably iX-4 series CPUs hit the wall on performance, with power efficiency continuing improvements into 2017 with iX-8*U CPUs — so 2013 and 2017. And as soon as their first Tick-Tock blip hit, it was clear to everyone that they don't have a clear path forward. In that sense, I fully expect the incumbent top fab to maintain the lead for a number of years even when a "sudden" competitor enters the market with clearer path forward.

ksec 2y ago

>If you believe you can consistently predict future like that, it should clearly guide your investment in stocks. Perhaps I should have written with Disclosures. For the record I did invest in AMD when it was below $3 and TSMC at below $400TWD. None of these are investment advices so take it what you will. ( You get much better return with Tesla and Nvidia in the same period of time but then investment isn't always about best returns. ) And I was waiting to invest into Intel, unfortunately Pat is gone. To my words I said this in April 2023 [1] "I am just worried if Stock price continue to fall, Pat may be forced out again by those stupid Board. And if Pat is out, I won’t invest in Intel at all." As you will read in my reply below, I have a very negative view on Intel's board for a very very long time. >However, just like how quickly and suddenly Intel lost the lead It wasn't quick or even sudden. I wrote about it in 2014 and got a death threat from Intel Fan boys then. I have been questioning about Intel's management on GPU, Fab capacity allocation, CapEX, dividends etc for a very long time. For another point, TSMC never wanted to be the most advance manufacturing Fab. Them having leading node is purely accidental and Intel's slip up. They have been doing Intel -1 node for most of their history and are doing just fine. Providing Pure Play Foundry Services with Industry wide support on Tools at a reasonable / acceptable price for Fabless players. And right now, they are firing on all cylinders. Again. None of these are investment advices and personal opinion only. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35722974 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35722974

necovek 2y ago
"Sudden" with big enterprises is still a span of multiple years: probably iX-4 series CPUs hit the wall on performance, with power efficiency continuing improvements into 2017 with iX-8*U CPUs — so 2013 and 2017. And as soon as their first Tick-Tock blip hit, it was clear to everyone that they don't have a clear path forward. In that sense, I fully expect the incumbent top fab to maintain the lead for a number of years even when a "sudden" competitor enters the market with clearer path forward.