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Putin said this over and over again and no red line actually startet the nuclear war he threatened everyone with [1]. On the other hand, our reactions to cross

Putin said this over and over again and no red line actually startet the nuclear war he threatened everyone with [1]. On the other hand, our reactions to crossing red lines are also nonexistent [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrai...

roenxi 2y ago
> Woodward writes that Biden's national security team at one point believed there was a real threat, a 50 per cent chance, that Putin would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. ~ https://www.9news.com.au/world/new-book-reveals-candid-behind-the-scenes-conversations-of-biden-trump-harris-and-putin/7de56512-ad89-4039-81f7-102754fee09b https://www.9news.com.au/world/new-book-reveals-candid-behin... Hopefully they are exaggerating for effect. A strategy of actively probing for Russia's breaking point is ruinously stupid; when you find it the odds are pretty good that it will be because they are at the point where they are willing to go nuclear. They might try some sort of escalate-to-de-escalate strike on NATO but there must be a pretty decent chance that would just escalate and the Russian command would be aware of that. Not lobbing missiles in to Russia is an entirely reasonable red line. We got all the way through the Afghan war and the Iraq war without anyone launching missiles into the US and that restraint didn't seem to cause any long term problems. Extending similar courtesies to Russia is appropriate.
- somenameforme 2y ago
  FWIW the US is also 100% aware of this. See the Proud Prophet wargames. [1] It was one of the most extensive, largescale, and 'realistic' wargames ever executed. It was essentially working out a variety of military strategies to try to gain an edge over the USSR - demonstrative nuclear strikes, limited-scale nuclear war, decapitation strikes against leadership, and so on. The outcome of literally every single scenario was essentially the end of the world with billions dead and the Northern Hemisphere rendered largely inhospitable. This wargame was carried out in 1983. Its conclusion lead the US military and leadership to change course from the previous pattern of escalation as a means of victory, to de-escalation and collaboration. By 1991 the Soviet Union would collapse with their leaders holding hands with American leaders. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proud_Prophet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proud_Prophet
  - roenxi 2y ago
    I'm pretty sure the military industrial complex has had those leaders replaced with ones of the "let's hit them, they're bluffing" variety. The fact they're even testing the limits they've already broken through seems like a case study in strategic incompetence. AFAIK there is literally nothing in this for the US apart from an opportunity to set China up for greater success. Which, while a noble move, is probably not intentional.
  - card_zero 2y ago
    By 1991 ... yes, I remember, it was an exciting time, The Scorpions wrote a song, everybody was very positive. This lasted about eight years. They've apparently changed the lyrics now. The opening lines are changed to "Now listen to my heart / It says Ukrainia, waiting for the wind to change." Meine stated, "It's not the time with this terrible war in Ukraine raging on, it's not the time to romanticize Russia." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_of_Change_(Scorpions_song) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_of_Change_(Scorpions_song...
somenameforme 2y ago
Amazing logic. We keep poking this bear and it hasn't yet stirred. Let's poke it even harder. What could go wrong.
- plz_throw 2y ago
  So what is your plan ? Keep ducking away and enabling Russia to live out it's dreams of a new USSR?
  - gitaarik 2y ago
    Well, what is wrong with "let them fight out their fight"? Ukraine is not member of NATO, and helping Ukraine too much can escalate things. If Russia attacks another country or group of countries, it's another situation and another story. I understand the threat, and that we shouldn't let us be walked over. But we should also not think that we can do anything without things escalating.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    When the only options appear to be nuclear holocaust or nuclear blackmail, it's time to think outside the box. This is easier said than done, of course, but limiting yourself to the dichotomy guarantees one or other outcome.
  - somenameforme 2y ago
    This obviously isn't their goal anymore than the Russians are running out of missiles, the ruble is rubble, this 'game-changer' will imminently end the war (instead of obv just escalating it), and so on endlessly. Russia started negotiations to end the war 4 days (!!!) after the war began when, at that point, it wasn't even a war, but little more than some performative demonstrations! And the main thing they wanted is what they've said all along - Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO or host foreign military bases. Everything else was negotiable - they were even willing to compromise on the exact status of Crimea! Then we got good ole Boris Johnson telling Zelensky to 'just fight'. One brilliant leader offering wisdom to another, with the outcome anybody could expect when such minds come together. Notably Putin has also somewhat uncharacteristically shared the details of conversations he was having with Biden shortly prior to the war. And it was again all about Ukraine's NATO status. Biden refused to budge beyond agreeing to delay Ukraine's entry by 10-15 years (which was probably a defacto sort of 'we'll wait until you die' offer). Russian began amassing forces relatively shortly after that conversation.

roenxi 2y ago

> Woodward writes that Biden's national security team at one point believed there was a real threat, a 50 per cent chance, that Putin would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. ~ https://www.9news.com.au/world/new-book-reveals-candid-behind-the-scenes-conversations-of-biden-trump-harris-and-putin/7de56512-ad89-4039-81f7-102754fee09b https://www.9news.com.au/world/new-book-reveals-candid-behin... Hopefully they are exaggerating for effect. A strategy of actively probing for Russia's breaking point is ruinously stupid; when you find it the odds are pretty good that it will be because they are at the point where they are willing to go nuclear. They might try some sort of escalate-to-de-escalate strike on NATO but there must be a pretty decent chance that would just escalate and the Russian command would be aware of that. Not lobbing missiles in to Russia is an entirely reasonable red line. We got all the way through the Afghan war and the Iraq war without anyone launching missiles into the US and that restraint didn't seem to cause any long term problems. Extending similar courtesies to Russia is appropriate.

somenameforme 2y ago
FWIW the US is also 100% aware of this. See the Proud Prophet wargames. [1] It was one of the most extensive, largescale, and 'realistic' wargames ever executed. It was essentially working out a variety of military strategies to try to gain an edge over the USSR - demonstrative nuclear strikes, limited-scale nuclear war, decapitation strikes against leadership, and so on. The outcome of literally every single scenario was essentially the end of the world with billions dead and the Northern Hemisphere rendered largely inhospitable. This wargame was carried out in 1983. Its conclusion lead the US military and leadership to change course from the previous pattern of escalation as a means of victory, to de-escalation and collaboration. By 1991 the Soviet Union would collapse with their leaders holding hands with American leaders. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proud_Prophet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proud_Prophet
- roenxi 2y ago
  I'm pretty sure the military industrial complex has had those leaders replaced with ones of the "let's hit them, they're bluffing" variety. The fact they're even testing the limits they've already broken through seems like a case study in strategic incompetence. AFAIK there is literally nothing in this for the US apart from an opportunity to set China up for greater success. Which, while a noble move, is probably not intentional.
- card_zero 2y ago
  By 1991 ... yes, I remember, it was an exciting time, The Scorpions wrote a song, everybody was very positive. This lasted about eight years. They've apparently changed the lyrics now. The opening lines are changed to "Now listen to my heart / It says Ukrainia, waiting for the wind to change." Meine stated, "It's not the time with this terrible war in Ukraine raging on, it's not the time to romanticize Russia." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_of_Change_(Scorpions_song) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_of_Change_(Scorpions_song...

somenameforme 2y ago

Amazing logic. We keep poking this bear and it hasn't yet stirred. Let's poke it even harder. What could go wrong.

plz_throw 2y ago
So what is your plan ? Keep ducking away and enabling Russia to live out it's dreams of a new USSR?
- gitaarik 2y ago
  Well, what is wrong with "let them fight out their fight"? Ukraine is not member of NATO, and helping Ukraine too much can escalate things. If Russia attacks another country or group of countries, it's another situation and another story. I understand the threat, and that we shouldn't let us be walked over. But we should also not think that we can do anything without things escalating.
- ben_w 2y ago
  When the only options appear to be nuclear holocaust or nuclear blackmail, it's time to think outside the box. This is easier said than done, of course, but limiting yourself to the dichotomy guarantees one or other outcome.
- somenameforme 2y ago
  This obviously isn't their goal anymore than the Russians are running out of missiles, the ruble is rubble, this 'game-changer' will imminently end the war (instead of obv just escalating it), and so on endlessly. Russia started negotiations to end the war 4 days (!!!) after the war began when, at that point, it wasn't even a war, but little more than some performative demonstrations! And the main thing they wanted is what they've said all along - Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO or host foreign military bases. Everything else was negotiable - they were even willing to compromise on the exact status of Crimea! Then we got good ole Boris Johnson telling Zelensky to 'just fight'. One brilliant leader offering wisdom to another, with the outcome anybody could expect when such minds come together. Notably Putin has also somewhat uncharacteristically shared the details of conversations he was having with Biden shortly prior to the war. And it was again all about Ukraine's NATO status. Biden refused to budge beyond agreeing to delay Ukraine's entry by 10-15 years (which was probably a defacto sort of 'we'll wait until you die' offer). Russian began amassing forces relatively shortly after that conversation.