8 ms·

Is this fab on par with TSMC's fabs in Taiwan? I am not up to date with the various processes.

by dpedu 2y ago

wtallis 2y ago
No. TSMC's 4nm processes are part of the 5nm family. 3nm has been shipping for over a year, and is only fabbed in Taiwan for now and the next few years.
- hackernewds 2y ago
  And purposefully so to keep the "silicon shield" intact for Taiwan. I did read that the yields in the US are just as good
- mdasen 2y ago
  It's not on par with the best TSMC has in Taiwan, but most companies are still using 4nm. Yes, 3nm has been shipping for over a year - but only if your company is named Apple. Intel just launched a small portion of its products using 3nm two months ago. I think realistically it'd be more fair to say that 3nm is coming in 2025 and there's a huge distance between 2025 and 2028 (when they'll start doing 3nm and 2nm in the US). Right now, AMD, Nvidia, and Qualcomm aren't doing 3nm. If the world lost 3nm today, it'd basically be Apple's products that would get hit. It'd definitely screw over Apple and it'd mess up the future plans for AMD, Nvidia, and Qualcomm, but it's not like the industry has been using 3nm for over a year. No, only Apple. The big problem is that there's a big difference between "we'll be bringing 3nm to the US in early 2026" and "we'll be bringing 2nm and 3nm to the US in 2028". If they started making 3nm in the US in early 2026, that's going to be less than a year behind most companies using 3nm. Qualcomm and Nvidia will probably start shipping 3nm in February 2025 and AMD will probably start shipping 3nm in late 2025. If TSMC's US fab were 12-18 months behind their Taiwan fabs, it wouldn't really be a problem, except for Apple. Everyone else is waiting 18 months for TSMC's latest gen stuff anyway. The problem isn't that the US fab can't do 3nm today. TSMC's Taiwan fabs aren't doing 3nm at scale unless your name is Apple. The problem is that their US fabs won't be doing 3nm for around 3 years after the industry moves over to 3nm. If the US fab could satisfy 4nm demand and Taiwan disappeared today, it'd mostly hit Apple's product line. The issue is that in 2026 or 2027, every company will be relying on 3nm and if Taiwan disappeared then, it'd hit the whole industry's product lines. But it's possible that Intel's 18A will do amazing and Intel will be able to manufacture at scale and a lot of TSMC's business will move to Intel. Then the US (Intel) would be manufacturing more advanced chips than TSMC in Taiwan. TSMC isn't expected to make the move to High-NA EUV for a few more years so Intel has some time when it could overtake TSMC.
  - numpy-thagoras 2y ago
    It may not seem like much since it's only Apple right now, but their 3nm SoCs are stunning. I can only imagine what the industry is going to look like when this tech becomes the standard. The miniaturization potential alone can transform many other technologies, let alone its value for low-power edge compute. The difference isn't revolutionary, but noticeable. Whoever has it will have a competitive advantage.
  - wtallis 2y ago
    > Yes, 3nm has been shipping for over a year - but only if your company is named Apple. Intel just launched a small portion of its products using 3nm two months ago. > I think realistically it'd be more fair to say that 3nm is coming in 2025 Almost everyone but Apple decided to skip N3B and wait for the later N3E. Intel decided to just be late with N3B, launching their laptop part in September and the desktop part in October. Apple, Qualcomm, and Mediatek all have N3E parts on shelves and in consumer's hands. 3nm is here, now. Two generations of TSMC 3nm have ramped to full production.
ryao 2y ago
Taiwan has a law barring the export of technology more than one generation behind: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2024/11/08/2003826545 https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2024/11/08/200... The article mentions that Arizona was set to ramp 4nm, which is presumably what they have now.
- rayiner 2y ago
  Why doesn’t the U.S. have laws like that?
  - jazzyjackson 2y ago
    Because keeping the bleeding edge in manufacturing to ourselves is not vital to our survival as a sovereign state
    - yieldcrv 2y ago
      yeah but stopping China from invading China isn't either
      - kayewiggin 2y ago
        China is in the beginning of a 30 year Great Depression, in no shape to invade Taiwan. Consumer spending in Beijing and Shanghai fell 20% y/y in November. Real estate prices have collapsed 50%, even in some parts of Beijing and Shanghai. Trump has filled the cabinet with mostly anti-China hawks, indicating large tariffs coming next year. Capital outflow from China increased to $45B in November, largest monthly deficit ever. China is pretty fucked.
        Paradigma11 2y ago
        That does sound like a fabulous time to start a jingoistic war to flame the nationalistic sentiments and declare any dissenters traitors to the nation.
      - 2y ago

Is this fab on par with TSMC's fabs in Taiwan? I am not up to date with the various processes.

by dpedu 2y ago

Is this fab on par with TSMC's fabs in Taiwan? I am not up to date with the various processes.

No. TSMC's 4nm processes are part of the 5nm family. 3nm has been shipping for over a year, and is only fabbed in Taiwan for now and the next few years.

hackernewds 2y ago
And purposefully so to keep the "silicon shield" intact for Taiwan. I did read that the yields in the US are just as good
mdasen 2y ago
It's not on par with the best TSMC has in Taiwan, but most companies are still using 4nm. Yes, 3nm has been shipping for over a year - but only if your company is named Apple. Intel just launched a small portion of its products using 3nm two months ago. I think realistically it'd be more fair to say that 3nm is coming in 2025 and there's a huge distance between 2025 and 2028 (when they'll start doing 3nm and 2nm in the US). Right now, AMD, Nvidia, and Qualcomm aren't doing 3nm. If the world lost 3nm today, it'd basically be Apple's products that would get hit. It'd definitely screw over Apple and it'd mess up the future plans for AMD, Nvidia, and Qualcomm, but it's not like the industry has been using 3nm for over a year. No, only Apple. The big problem is that there's a big difference between "we'll be bringing 3nm to the US in early 2026" and "we'll be bringing 2nm and 3nm to the US in 2028". If they started making 3nm in the US in early 2026, that's going to be less than a year behind most companies using 3nm. Qualcomm and Nvidia will probably start shipping 3nm in February 2025 and AMD will probably start shipping 3nm in late 2025. If TSMC's US fab were 12-18 months behind their Taiwan fabs, it wouldn't really be a problem, except for Apple. Everyone else is waiting 18 months for TSMC's latest gen stuff anyway. The problem isn't that the US fab can't do 3nm today. TSMC's Taiwan fabs aren't doing 3nm at scale unless your name is Apple. The problem is that their US fabs won't be doing 3nm for around 3 years after the industry moves over to 3nm. If the US fab could satisfy 4nm demand and Taiwan disappeared today, it'd mostly hit Apple's product line. The issue is that in 2026 or 2027, every company will be relying on 3nm and if Taiwan disappeared then, it'd hit the whole industry's product lines. But it's possible that Intel's 18A will do amazing and Intel will be able to manufacture at scale and a lot of TSMC's business will move to Intel. Then the US (Intel) would be manufacturing more advanced chips than TSMC in Taiwan. TSMC isn't expected to make the move to High-NA EUV for a few more years so Intel has some time when it could overtake TSMC.
- numpy-thagoras 2y ago
  It may not seem like much since it's only Apple right now, but their 3nm SoCs are stunning. I can only imagine what the industry is going to look like when this tech becomes the standard. The miniaturization potential alone can transform many other technologies, let alone its value for low-power edge compute. The difference isn't revolutionary, but noticeable. Whoever has it will have a competitive advantage.
- wtallis 2y ago
  > Yes, 3nm has been shipping for over a year - but only if your company is named Apple. Intel just launched a small portion of its products using 3nm two months ago. > I think realistically it'd be more fair to say that 3nm is coming in 2025 Almost everyone but Apple decided to skip N3B and wait for the later N3E. Intel decided to just be late with N3B, launching their laptop part in September and the desktop part in October. Apple, Qualcomm, and Mediatek all have N3E parts on shelves and in consumer's hands. 3nm is here, now. Two generations of TSMC 3nm have ramped to full production.

ryao 2y ago

Taiwan has a law barring the export of technology more than one generation behind: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2024/11/08/2003826545 https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2024/11/08/200... The article mentions that Arizona was set to ramp 4nm, which is presumably what they have now.

rayiner 2y ago
Why doesn’t the U.S. have laws like that?
- jazzyjackson 2y ago
  Because keeping the bleeding edge in manufacturing to ourselves is not vital to our survival as a sovereign state
  - yieldcrv 2y ago
    yeah but stopping China from invading China isn't either
    - kayewiggin 2y ago
      China is in the beginning of a 30 year Great Depression, in no shape to invade Taiwan. Consumer spending in Beijing and Shanghai fell 20% y/y in November. Real estate prices have collapsed 50%, even in some parts of Beijing and Shanghai. Trump has filled the cabinet with mostly anti-China hawks, indicating large tariffs coming next year. Capital outflow from China increased to $45B in November, largest monthly deficit ever. China is pretty fucked.
      - Paradigma11 2y ago
        That does sound like a fabulous time to start a jingoistic war to flame the nationalistic sentiments and declare any dissenters traitors to the nation.
    - 2y ago