YouTuber Ryan McBeth has a pretty good analysis of available evidence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKiJwuY79Q0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKiJwuY79Q0

YouTuber Ryan McBeth has a pretty good analysis of available evidence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKiJwuY79Q0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKiJwuY79Q0 I tend to agree with his conclusion that it's unlikely that the Russians attempted to force the jet to crash in the Caspian Sea to cover up the event. Not because Putin's government has any moral qualms, but because they lack the level of organizational competence it would take to come up with a plan like this and carry it out on short notice. The two nearest airports in the direction away from Russia's war of aggression are the flight's origin at Baku, and Aktau. Baku is closer, but it's on the other side of a mountain range. Aktau is slightly further, on the other side of the Caspian Sea. A water landing is at least possible. Choosing to fly a damaged aircraft the slightly longer route over a lake rather than the shorter route over a mountain range is an eminently sensible decision.