3 ms·

I don’t think it is obvious, because you get a lot of contradictory data on this. Secondly, if people hadn’t rose tinted glasses, we’d have a massive drop in f

I don’t think it is obvious, because you get a lot of contradictory data on this. Secondly, if people hadn’t rose tinted glasses, we’d have a massive drop in fertility, I am pretty sure. The facts of parenthood are not very attractive. The nom quantifiable intangible stuff makes it worth it, but those are very difficult to grasp in theory. The negative sides on the other hand are very easy to grasp…

toomuchtodo 2y ago
Refer to current total fertility rates [1]. Note that ~40% of annual pregnancies in the US and internationally are unintended [2] (the data does not indicate what percentage of those are unwanted, leaving us to infer from other data sources around parental preference [3]). If we drive down those unintended pregnancies through robust access to contraceptives and reproductive healthcare, I presume the drop in fertility rate ("we’d have a massive drop in fertility") we're already seeing [4] [5] would only accelerate. > The facts of parenthood are not very attractive. Yes, exactly, the burden is to explain this to people who don't know so they can make an informed choice. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37300184 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37300184 (citations) [3] https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/adults-no-children-why-pew-data https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/adults-no-children-why-pew-... [4] https://www.healthdata.org/news-events/newsroom/news-releases/lancet-dramatic-declines-global-fertility-rates-set-transform https://www.healthdata.org/news-events/newsroom/news-release... [5] https://www.vox.com/23971366/declining-birth-rate-fertility-babies-children https://www.vox.com/23971366/declining-birth-rate-fertility-...
- illiac786 2y ago
  Well, if you want humanity to end, sure, you should inform people better. But that’s a one sided information flow. You can quantify how much money a kid costs. You can’t quantify what it brings to you. Hence this information would be by essence very partial…
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    > You can’t quantify what it brings to you You can’t know until you’ve already walked through the one-way door. What about all of that aggregate regret and suffering for those who didn’t want, or don’t want after kids are here? Humanity isn’t going to end because we empower people who don’t want kids to not have them, although the population will compress over the next 200 years (from 10B downward). There will always be parents who really want to be parents, as well as parents who thought they wanted to be but regret it. For those who want to eat the glass, we salute you. Options for everyone else.

toomuchtodo 2y ago

Refer to current total fertility rates [1]. Note that ~40% of annual pregnancies in the US and internationally are unintended [2] (the data does not indicate what percentage of those are unwanted, leaving us to infer from other data sources around parental preference [3]). If we drive down those unintended pregnancies through robust access to contraceptives and reproductive healthcare, I presume the drop in fertility rate ("we’d have a massive drop in fertility") we're already seeing [4] [5] would only accelerate. > The facts of parenthood are not very attractive. Yes, exactly, the burden is to explain this to people who don't know so they can make an informed choice. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37300184 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37300184 (citations) [3] https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/adults-no-children-why-pew-data https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/adults-no-children-why-pew-... [4] https://www.healthdata.org/news-events/newsroom/news-releases/lancet-dramatic-declines-global-fertility-rates-set-transform https://www.healthdata.org/news-events/newsroom/news-release... [5] https://www.vox.com/23971366/declining-birth-rate-fertility-babies-children https://www.vox.com/23971366/declining-birth-rate-fertility-...

illiac786 2y ago
Well, if you want humanity to end, sure, you should inform people better. But that’s a one sided information flow. You can quantify how much money a kid costs. You can’t quantify what it brings to you. Hence this information would be by essence very partial…
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  > You can’t quantify what it brings to you You can’t know until you’ve already walked through the one-way door. What about all of that aggregate regret and suffering for those who didn’t want, or don’t want after kids are here? Humanity isn’t going to end because we empower people who don’t want kids to not have them, although the population will compress over the next 200 years (from 10B downward). There will always be parents who really want to be parents, as well as parents who thought they wanted to be but regret it. For those who want to eat the glass, we salute you. Options for everyone else.