My best anti AGI argument is that true reasoning remains elusive for LLMs and indeed any AI technology; that true reasoning is a prerequisite for AGI; and that

My best anti AGI argument is that true reasoning remains elusive for LLMs and indeed any AI technology; that true reasoning is a prerequisite for AGI; and that solving true reasoning requires solutions that we don’t have yet and in fact don’t have much promising progress on. People who believe in a short timeline for AGI don’t have an actual answer for this other than “look at all this recent progress”, which is not an answer at all.