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The main issue is that Europeans are starting to become worried and confused about that stance, which we know will translate into anger - understandably so beca

The main issue is that Europeans are starting to become worried and confused about that stance, which we know will translate into anger - understandably so because Russia is threatening those countries' ways of living, completely unprovoked. The whole detachment from Russians who resigned themselves from any responsibility for their government action doesn't help either, because the narrative that "Russians are just victims of the regime and can't do anything about it" is already fading away. It might snap if Europeans don't start to see decisive actions to protect their sovereignty and ways of living. Perhaps there needs to be a blockade in the Baltic.

benterix 2y ago
> the narrative that "Russians are just victims of the regime and can't do anything about it" is already fading away. It's not a narrative, something you want to present to others in order to convince them or something, it's a sad reality for many Russians.[0] It's difficult to understand for someone who hasn't lived in a totalitarian state which can do whatever they want with your life and the lives of your family without absolutely any onsequences, whether you're rich and powerful like Navalny or just a simple pianist like Pavel Kushnir. It's easy to say "do something" if it's not you that risk quite literally everything. [0] Yes, not all, I know. The percentage debate, or the lack of verifiable numbers, is another issue.
- libertine 2y ago
  I think I didn't make myself clear enough, I meant narrative in the sense of what Europeans tell themselves, it just happens to be aligned with a portion of reality. As you mentioned, it's hard to say to what extent. But from the polling results[0], it seems like many Russians want Ukrainians to become subservient to Russia and don't want them to be a successful independent nation in any way, shape, or form. This war is being driven mainly by "entrepreneurs" who want to enrich themselves by going into go into Ukraine to kill as many Ukrainians as possible, and according to Russian state media, the average is around 30.000 contracts per month, with a total of 750.000 Russian casualties. These are big numbers, unlike we've seen since WW2. > It's easy to say "do something" if it's not you that risk quite literally everything. So in a way, you're agreeing with me that the support for a "Russian victory" is increasing because the illusion that "things will be better" for Russians is tied to the concept of "victory", and "things will be bad" if Russia faces a "defeat". Because this geopolitical blunder of the Russian regime was a loss already, and there's no way back. They don't even know what "victory" is other than capitulation and genocide of Ukraine, and somehow that will magically improve the destruction of Russia's state, culture, technology development, partnerships, diplomacy, trade... They don't even know what the upside is, other than Putin gets to stay in power until he dies and they won't see "little Russians" become more prosperous than Russians. Russia reached a point where War became a means in itself. [0]https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/reluctant-consensus-war-and-russias-public-opinion/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorr...
  - anal_reactor 2y ago
    Eastern Europe was trying to tell Western Europe what Russia is like. They didn't listen and called us racist. Now there's huge regret.
    - libertine 2y ago
      You're right. The biggest blunder of the XXI Century was allowing Russia to get away with Georgia in 2008 and a second time with Ukraine in 2014.
    - jltsiren 2y ago
      It's not about Eastern Europe and Western Europe. It's about countries that see Russia as a threat and countries that want normal relations with Russia. Some East European countries are in the latter group. There are also European countries that don't really care about Russia, because it's weak enough, poor enough, and far away.
      - benterix 2y ago
        > It's about countries that see Russia as a threat and countries that want normal relations with Russia. It's a bit too simplified. First, I believe everybody would like to have normal relations with Russia and not to deal with the PITA it became. Second, also the two countries you mentioned (Hungary and Slovakia) adopted the servile attitude to Russia because they perceive it as a threat and the current leaders of these countries believe that appeasing Putin is a smarter thing to do; the rest of Europe disagrees based on their experience so far.
fsloth 2y ago
”Perhaps there needs to be a blockade in the Baltic.” Yes. Controlling Kattegat traffic should be feasible which should give policy makers a fair range of options.

benterix 2y ago

> the narrative that "Russians are just victims of the regime and can't do anything about it" is already fading away. It's not a narrative, something you want to present to others in order to convince them or something, it's a sad reality for many Russians.[0] It's difficult to understand for someone who hasn't lived in a totalitarian state which can do whatever they want with your life and the lives of your family without absolutely any onsequences, whether you're rich and powerful like Navalny or just a simple pianist like Pavel Kushnir. It's easy to say "do something" if it's not you that risk quite literally everything. [0] Yes, not all, I know. The percentage debate, or the lack of verifiable numbers, is another issue.

libertine 2y ago
I think I didn't make myself clear enough, I meant narrative in the sense of what Europeans tell themselves, it just happens to be aligned with a portion of reality. As you mentioned, it's hard to say to what extent. But from the polling results[0], it seems like many Russians want Ukrainians to become subservient to Russia and don't want them to be a successful independent nation in any way, shape, or form. This war is being driven mainly by "entrepreneurs" who want to enrich themselves by going into go into Ukraine to kill as many Ukrainians as possible, and according to Russian state media, the average is around 30.000 contracts per month, with a total of 750.000 Russian casualties. These are big numbers, unlike we've seen since WW2. > It's easy to say "do something" if it's not you that risk quite literally everything. So in a way, you're agreeing with me that the support for a "Russian victory" is increasing because the illusion that "things will be better" for Russians is tied to the concept of "victory", and "things will be bad" if Russia faces a "defeat". Because this geopolitical blunder of the Russian regime was a loss already, and there's no way back. They don't even know what "victory" is other than capitulation and genocide of Ukraine, and somehow that will magically improve the destruction of Russia's state, culture, technology development, partnerships, diplomacy, trade... They don't even know what the upside is, other than Putin gets to stay in power until he dies and they won't see "little Russians" become more prosperous than Russians. Russia reached a point where War became a means in itself. [0]https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/reluctant-consensus-war-and-russias-public-opinion/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorr...
- anal_reactor 2y ago
  Eastern Europe was trying to tell Western Europe what Russia is like. They didn't listen and called us racist. Now there's huge regret.
  - libertine 2y ago
    You're right. The biggest blunder of the XXI Century was allowing Russia to get away with Georgia in 2008 and a second time with Ukraine in 2014.
  - jltsiren 2y ago
    It's not about Eastern Europe and Western Europe. It's about countries that see Russia as a threat and countries that want normal relations with Russia. Some East European countries are in the latter group. There are also European countries that don't really care about Russia, because it's weak enough, poor enough, and far away.
    - benterix 2y ago
      > It's about countries that see Russia as a threat and countries that want normal relations with Russia. It's a bit too simplified. First, I believe everybody would like to have normal relations with Russia and not to deal with the PITA it became. Second, also the two countries you mentioned (Hungary and Slovakia) adopted the servile attitude to Russia because they perceive it as a threat and the current leaders of these countries believe that appeasing Putin is a smarter thing to do; the rest of Europe disagrees based on their experience so far.

fsloth 2y ago

”Perhaps there needs to be a blockade in the Baltic.” Yes. Controlling Kattegat traffic should be feasible which should give policy makers a fair range of options.