4 ms·
- "so I’m not sure who is ignoring it or what we should be doing differently" It's the US government who's ignoring it. They're acting as if they have inverted
by perihelions 2y ago
- "so I’m not sure who is ignoring it or what we should be doing differently"
It's the US government who's ignoring it. They're acting as if they have inverted priorities—putting agricultural industry interests first, as well as short-term politics and optics.
The federal vaccine effort seems to at the token-effort level, on track to repeat 2020 all over again. I'm inferring this from looking at budget figures: Warp Speed spent (I think) $18 billion in 2020, while the current efforts total just 1-2% of that [0] (mostly one single grant to Moderna). That looks to me on track to repeat 2020: a year or more without a (fully deployed and mass-produced) vaccine—tens of trillions in losses in the future, because government leaders aren't proactive-thinking enough to invest a few billion today.
(Here's a remarkable figure from [0]: the federal government is currently spending 7x more subsidizing livestock farms for their economic hardship from HPAI than on developing vaccines for it).
Another major failing is the lack of effort (again mirroring 2020) on monitoring early outbreaks. The pandemic strain of HPAI doesn't yet exist. It's likely to come into existence, if there's large numbers of HPAI human infections, simultaneous with infections with human-adpated influenza strains—that's where you'd get the highly transmissible pandemic strain, from genetic crossover with ordinary flu.
But: most farm worker HPAI outbreaks are going unnoticed [1,2]. There's very little concerted effort to monitor and prevent crossover infections in the high-risk sectors, on livestock farms. (Again, I feel we're repeating 2020: prioritizing short-term industry considerations over public welfare—as if it's more important to minimize hardship to the dairy industry, than to prevent a pandemic). Sure; there's token government efforts that look like they're helping keep farm workers safe—but empirically they're simply not working. A complication is that this industry hires large numbers of undocumented/illegal farm labor: people who deliberately avoid interactions with government officials; as well as people who avoid or are priced out of healthcare access.
[0] https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/24/health/america-bird-flu-next-pandemic-kff-health-news/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/24/health/america-bird-flu-n...
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/09/health/bird-flu-diaries-farmworkers.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/09/health/bird-flu-diaries-f...
[2] https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-11-26/bird-flu-warnings-are-going-unheeded-at-many-dairy-farms https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-11-26/bird-fl...
- amluto 2y agoI don’t see why a vaccination effort should be complex or expensive. Unlike COVID, A5N1 is not a newly discovered novel threat. We have a stockpiled vaccine already: https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/influenza-virus-vaccine-h5n1-national-stockpile https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/influe... And, more importantly, there is already a seasonal flu campaign every year. Interestingly, it was quadravalent until this year, when B/Yamagata was removed: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/2024-2025.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/2024-2025.html And, unlike COVID, we already know how to make influenza vaccines. I haven’t seen any explanation for why the CDC did not add A5N1 to the seasonal flu. Doing so seems likely to massively reduce the severity of a potential outbreak of human-transmissible A5N1 and maybe even decrease the probability of an outbreak at all, and it would get about 50% coverage of the US population with no special effort at all beyond the effort of specifying it for the seasonal vaccine.
- perihelions 2y ago- "B/Yamagata was removed" I remember that! It's not often we celebrate the extinction of a species :) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28723310 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28723310 ("This influenza lineage may have become extinct (nature.com)", 47 comments)