5 ms·

Is there anyone besides Russia who would have even been capable of shooting it down?

by wat10000 2y ago

londons_explore 2y ago
Well considering the incident happened in Kazakhstan, one might imagine Kazakhstan has air defences too...
- mlyle 2y ago
  The aircraft was sent away / prohibited from landing after reporting the explosion over Grozny, and had to divert to Kazakhstan to land without real pitch control. Some view the denying of emergency landing clearance as an effort to destroy/obscure evidence: https://x.com/DailyTurkic/status/1872008574878298418 https://x.com/DailyTurkic/status/1872008574878298418
  - wat10000 2y ago
    The pilots probably should have ignored that. There’s no such thing as “denying landing clearance” to an aircraft experiencing an emergency. There’s only “get out of the way of the incoming emergency.” But I can’t blame them for not wanting to take their chances when they were just shot by local air defense.
    - potato3732842 2y ago
      Do you really wanna push your luck with the people who just shot at you while also handing over all physical evidince to them?
    - mlyle 2y ago
      "Yah, ATC is saying to leave-- but instead let's say 'unable' and shoot an approach at same airport where we just got shot at."
    - Spooky23 2y ago
      There’s also “accidentally shoot another missile at the threat that wasn’t shot down last time” phenomenon
  - ummonk 2y ago
    The more obvious explanation would be that air controllers surmised that it was at risk of being shot at again if it continued attempting a landing in Grozny and the safest thing to do was to divert it out of Russia.
    - selimthegrim 2y ago
      Regional air traffic control is in Rostov (on-Don) - you’d think they’d at least be able to get the military controllers at Rostov (Southern military district HQ) on the horn?
      - ummonk 2y ago
        Assuming they have an established channel of communication, yes they would have, but imagine trying to communicate to them which blip on the radar screen is an actual civilian aircraft, and hoping they're able to track it and make sure they only fire on other targets.
- wat10000 2y ago
  The plane crashed in Kazakhstan. It was shot over Russia. It was still sufficiently airworthy to make quite a distance before crashing.
eastbound 2y ago
Yes, who shoots down entire civilian aircrafts? Itavia 870 comes to mind: In the 80ies, a fighter jet was being smuggled to Gaddafi by hiding under a civilian aircraft, and the speculation is that France shot the convoy, killing 81. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Itavia_Flight_870 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Itavia_Flight_870
- wat10000 2y ago
  It’s sadly somewhat common: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airliner_shootdown_incidents https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airliner_shootdown_inc... Russia/USSR does seem overrepresented here.
- gpderetta 2y ago
  Sure, but who's most likely to have shot down this plane over Russian territory?
  - yakshaving_jgt 2y ago
    The russians.
- lxgr 2y ago
  > [...] a fighter jet was being smuggled to Gaddafi by hiding under a civilian aircraft [...] Do you have any sources for that? The article you link does not seem to mention that theory.
  - eastbound 2y ago
    That’s what I understood from a documentary, I think it was from Al Jeezira, a civilian was pointing that there was a double radar echo from the plane and it meant there were probably two planes on top of each other. Sure the article mention a theory that Gaddafi was in a fighter jet, and the civilian plane was a collateral damage from a dogfight, but given the lack of information in the public space, both theories still have a lot of common points.

Is there anyone besides Russia who would have even been capable of shooting it down?

londons_explore 2y ago

Well considering the incident happened in Kazakhstan, one might imagine Kazakhstan has air defences too...

mlyle 2y ago
The aircraft was sent away / prohibited from landing after reporting the explosion over Grozny, and had to divert to Kazakhstan to land without real pitch control. Some view the denying of emergency landing clearance as an effort to destroy/obscure evidence: https://x.com/DailyTurkic/status/1872008574878298418 https://x.com/DailyTurkic/status/1872008574878298418
- wat10000 2y ago
  The pilots probably should have ignored that. There’s no such thing as “denying landing clearance” to an aircraft experiencing an emergency. There’s only “get out of the way of the incoming emergency.” But I can’t blame them for not wanting to take their chances when they were just shot by local air defense.
  - potato3732842 2y ago
    Do you really wanna push your luck with the people who just shot at you while also handing over all physical evidince to them?
  - mlyle 2y ago
    "Yah, ATC is saying to leave-- but instead let's say 'unable' and shoot an approach at same airport where we just got shot at."
  - Spooky23 2y ago
    There’s also “accidentally shoot another missile at the threat that wasn’t shot down last time” phenomenon
- ummonk 2y ago
  The more obvious explanation would be that air controllers surmised that it was at risk of being shot at again if it continued attempting a landing in Grozny and the safest thing to do was to divert it out of Russia.
  - selimthegrim 2y ago
    Regional air traffic control is in Rostov (on-Don) - you’d think they’d at least be able to get the military controllers at Rostov (Southern military district HQ) on the horn?
    - ummonk 2y ago
      Assuming they have an established channel of communication, yes they would have, but imagine trying to communicate to them which blip on the radar screen is an actual civilian aircraft, and hoping they're able to track it and make sure they only fire on other targets.
wat10000 2y ago
The plane crashed in Kazakhstan. It was shot over Russia. It was still sufficiently airworthy to make quite a distance before crashing.

eastbound 2y ago

Yes, who shoots down entire civilian aircrafts? Itavia 870 comes to mind: In the 80ies, a fighter jet was being smuggled to Gaddafi by hiding under a civilian aircraft, and the speculation is that France shot the convoy, killing 81. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Itavia_Flight_870 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Itavia_Flight_870

wat10000 2y ago
It’s sadly somewhat common: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airliner_shootdown_incidents https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airliner_shootdown_inc... Russia/USSR does seem overrepresented here.
gpderetta 2y ago
Sure, but who's most likely to have shot down this plane over Russian territory?
- yakshaving_jgt 2y ago
  The russians.
lxgr 2y ago
> [...] a fighter jet was being smuggled to Gaddafi by hiding under a civilian aircraft [...] Do you have any sources for that? The article you link does not seem to mention that theory.
- eastbound 2y ago
  That’s what I understood from a documentary, I think it was from Al Jeezira, a civilian was pointing that there was a double radar echo from the plane and it meant there were probably two planes on top of each other. Sure the article mention a theory that Gaddafi was in a fighter jet, and the civilian plane was a collateral damage from a dogfight, but given the lack of information in the public space, both theories still have a lot of common points.